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27 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Thai exports grew by 2.27% in 1Q21, supported by global economic recovery, and are expected to grow by 7.0% for the whole year

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

        Thai exports, excluding petroleum products, gold, weapons and military supplies, grew by 8.47 percent in March 2021, in line with the region’s strong export growth and reflecting a better-than-expected global economic recovery. The robust export growth in March helped drive Thailand’s export reversal to 2.27% y-o-y growth in 1Q 2021.  

        Significant progress in some countries in containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with vaccination, has contributed to a better-than-expected economic recovery in these countries and has been an important factor in supporting Thailand’s exports. In March 2021, Thai exports to the EU (15) surged by 32%, exports to the US grew for the tenth consecutive month, and exports to Japan grew for the fifth straight month.  Meanwhile, Thai exports to Asian markets recovered well, driven by exports to Malaysia skyrocketing by 70.6%, exports to China rising by 35.4%, and exports to CLMV countries reverting to a growth of 2.0%.

        KResearch is more optimistic about the 2021 export outlook, and has revised the growth forecast upward from 4.5% to 7.0%, supported primarily by faster-than-expected global economic recovery, particularly in Thailand’s key trade partners, and pent-up demand. Looking ahead, faster vaccination rates in developed economies, steady implementation of economic stimulus measures and accommodative monetary policies in many countries will continue to support global economic growth and will in turn benefit Thai exports. However, Thai exports will continue to experience numerous risks, such as the continued rise in the number of COVID-19 infections in some countries, the vaccine efficacy and confidence in COVID-19 vaccines, shortages of shipping containers and rising ocean freight rates.

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Econ Digest