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22 Sep 2023

Econ Digest

The Fed held its policy rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected at the FOMC meeting on September 19-20, 2023

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        The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 19-20, 2023. The Fed’s new dot plot showed that there will be one more rate hike this year, and next year the Fed may keep interest rates high for longer than previously estimated.

        Based on the Fed’s signals and the new dot plot, KResearch deems that if the US inflation rate falls more slowly than the Fed expected amid risks of rising energy prices and the US labor market does not slow down as much as expected, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates one more time this year and may cut interest rates twice in the second half of next year.

        As for the impact on the Baht, it is expected that the Baht remains under pressure to weaken due to the Fed’s monetary policy stance. This may result in a strengthening of the US dollar and capital outflows from emerging markets. The Baht also faces pressure from domestic factors, namely concerns about the recovery of the Thai economy amid elevated uncertainties.

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