Thailand’s airport business in 2025: Passenger traffic and flight plans may fall below expectations due to multiple risk factors

• In 2025 airport business revenue is expected to reach 80.7 billion baht, or 0.2% growth, marking a slowdown from 2024. Supporting factors include 1. An expected 145.4 million passengers, up 3.4%, although slower than in 2024 due to a downward trend in foreign tourist arrivals as compared with last year and 2. International airlines’ flight plans to Thailand during the first nine months of 2025, which continue to show a positive outlook.
• Looking ahead, Thailand’s airport business faces significant challenges. Passenger numbers and airline flight plans may fall short of projections due to a slowdown in both domestic and global economic conditions, as well as geopolitical tensions affecting international travel. These risks could impact aeronautical revenue, with further spillover effects on non-aeronautical income. Concession-related revenue may also be affected by a decline in revenue-sharing proportions.

Outlook for Thailand’s Airport Business
In 2025, Thailand’s airport business is expected to generate approximately 80.7 billion baht in revenue, a slight increase of 0.2% from 2024, as the overall operating environment for airport businesses remains highly challenging (Figure 2).
Airport business revenue is divided into two main categories:

1.    Aeronautical Revenue, such as passenger service charges for both international and domestic departing passengers (Passenger Service Charge: PSC) and airport service fees.

2.    Non Aeronautical Revenue, such as rental fees, concession income, and other service charges, including utilities, check in counter services, and various in airport services.

        The revenue structure depends on the size of the airport. For small airports, the majority—more than 80%—comes from aeronautical revenue. In contrast, for large airports, the revenue share between the two categories tends to be more balanced.
        In 2025, the operating environment for airport businesses is expected to be highly challenging, which will weigh on revenue growth for Thailand’s airport sector. Key factors affecting airport business revenue include:

-    Aeronautical Revenue is expected to see a slightly positive outlook, supported by:

-    Passenger volume using airports (including Thai and international travelers on both domestic and international routes), which is projected to reach approximately 145.4 million passengers, a 3.4% increase, though slower than the 15% growth in 2024 (Figure 3).

The increase in airport passenger volume in Thailand is supported by international and domestic travel by Thai residents, business travel, and Thailand’s role as host of several major international events this year, including the SEA Games–ASEAN Games and the 2025 FIVB Women’s Volleyball World Championship.
However, the slowdown in passenger numbers is mainly due to an expected 2.8% decline in international tourist arrivals to Thailand in 2025, compared with the previous year (Figure 4). The decrease in foreign tourists directly affects revenue from international passenger service charges.

-    International flight volume continues to show an upward trend. According to published international flight schedules from airlines—covering advance schedules up to September 2025—the number of flights to Thailand from most regions is still increasing, except from North America, where flight volume has declined due to seasonal travel patterns (Figure 5).

    Looking ahead, the business environment remains highly uncertain and will depend on government policies to attract foreign investment and international tourists, as well as travel demand of foreign visitors. This is reflected in airlines’ forward scheduling, which responds to growing interest in new travel destinations. Compared with other countries in the region, international flights to China grew by 18% (9M 2025 vs. 9M 2024), flights to Japan rose by 16%, while flights to Thailand increased by only 8% (Figure 6).

-    Non aeronautical revenue in 2025 is also expected to be affected by the downward trend in international tourist arrivals to Thailand, which may lead to a decline in revenue sharing proportions.

Risks to Thailand’s Airport Business
•    A key risk is the possibility that passenger numbers and airlines’ flight plans may fall short of projections, which would impact aeronautical revenue—accounting for more than 50% of airport business income (depending on the size and operations of each airport). For the remainder of 2025, the main risk factors include:

-    Both domestic and global economic conditions are expected to slow, affecting the travel plans of Thai and international tourists. Ongoing trade tensions are weighing on economic activity and purchasing power in many countries, including Thailand. As of April 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global economic growth for 2025 at 2.8%, a downward revision from the 3.3% growth forecast made in January 2025. Meanwhile, the Thai economy faces multiple headwinds, and KResearch estimates Thailand’s GDP growth in 2025 at 1.4%.

-    Geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks for airlines and international travel. Although the situation between India and Pakistan has eased and airlines have resumed normal operations on affected routes, conflicts in the Middle East—as well as the ongoing Russia Ukraine war—remain unresolved. These issues continue to affect airline route planning, flight frequencies, and international travel.

-    Competition in the global tourism market remains intense. At the same time, a series of negative news events has weakened confidence among certain groups of tourists regarding safety and the travel experience in Thailand. This is reflected in the continued decline in foreign tourist arrivals: during the first four months of 2025, foreign arrivals to Thailand fell by 0.3% (compared with the same period in 2024), while Japan saw strong growth of 25%, and Vietnam expanded by 6.3%.

•    Operating costs are rising while revenue remains uncertain, and going forward, competition among airports in the region is expected to intensify.

-    Many airports in Thailand still need to improve operational efficiency and enhance safety to comply with international aviation safety standards. This will require substantial investment, such as expanding passenger terminals and runways to ease airport congestion, adopting new technologies to improve operational efficiency and safety, and investing in environmental initiatives or Green Airport development.

-    Competition with regional airports is increasing. Many countries are investing in the development of international airports to accommodate growth in passenger traffic and flight volumes. They are adopting advanced technologies to streamline airport operations and enhance user convenience in order to attract airlines or position themselves as key international transit hubs. This growing competition in airport services and pricing may affect Thailand’s airport operating costs, revenue, and profitability, as Thai airports must continue upgrading to remain competitive (Figure 7).

•    The continuity of the government’s domestic airport development plans is a key factor affecting the airport business. Uncertainty in government policymaking poses a risk that could delay airport development projects, impacting planning, investment, and the long term growth of the sector.
•    The readiness of Thailand’s airports for aviation safety inspection standards is another area requiring close attention, particularly regarding the results of the safety audit by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) scheduled for August 2025.

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