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22 Nov 2022

Econ Digest

Thai GDP grew higher-than-expected in 3Q2022 due to the reopening of the country and is expected to exceed the previous estimate of 2.9% for the full-year


        Thailand’s GDP grew higher than KResearch’s expectation in 3Q2022, mainly driven by a 9.0% expansion in private consumption spending following an acceleration in all categories, particularly strong growth in spending on hotel and restaurant services boosted by the reopening of the country. In addition, the declaration of COVID-19 as an endemic disease in Thailand also spurred an expansion in spending as a result of the release of previous pent-up demand amid peaking inflation in 3Q2022.

        Meanwhile, private investment grew at an accelerated rate as the Thai economy continues to show signs of recovery. Nonetheless, while public investment decreased for the third consecutive quarter and exports slowed down in line with the global economic trends and were affected by the time-to-time lockdowns in China under its zero-COVID policy, imports continued to expand at an accelerated rate, resulting in a dramatic decrease in Thailand’s trade surplus.

        Thailand’s economy in the last quarter of 2022 is expected to be boosted mainly by the tourism sector, while the export sector is expected to continue to slow amid a weakening global economy, contributing to the Thai economic growth rate trending above KResearch’s forecast of 2.9% in 2022. KResearch projects that the Thai economy will expand in the range of 3.2-4.2% in 2023, closing to the projection of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). The growth of the Thai economy next year will mainly depend on revenues from the inbound tourism sector and the impact of the global economic slowdown.

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Econ Digest