Thailand’s auto tire exports to the U.S. may continue to grow despite protectionist trade measures under Trump 2.0

• In 2025, Thai automotive tires may be subject to reciprocal tariffs at equal rates imposed by the U.S. While this is unlikely to significantly impact exports of passenger car and pickup truck tires, it may pose pricing risks for exports of bus and truck tires when compared with key competitors.
• Thai automotive tire exports to the U.S. in 2025 are projected to grow by 5%, driven primarily by continued growth in passenger car and pickup truck tire exports, which are expected to remain price-competitive—even in the event that both Thailand and its competitors face reciprocal tariffs from the U.S.

What is Thailand’s Current Role in the U.S. Automotive Tire Market?
         Thailand has been the U.S.’ largest supplier of automotive tires since 2015. As of 2024, Thailand accounted for as much as 26% of the U.S. automotive tire import market, equivalent to over 58 million tires. This includes approximately 42 million passenger car and pickup truck tires, and 16 million bus and truck tires. For each tire category, the volume of U.S. imports from Thailand was nearly double that of its closest competitors—Mexico and Vietnam (see Figure 1).

How did Thailand become the leading exporter of automotive tires to the U.S.?
        Thailand emerged as the leading exporter of automotive tires to the U.S. following the imposition of various trade measures against China starting in 2015. These included anti-dumping (AD) duties, countervailing duties (CVD), and Section 301 measures aimed at addressing unfair trade practices. As a result, foreign investments in automotive tire manufacturing in Thailand increased significantly, enabling the country to overtake China as the top supplier to the U.S. market. However, since 2021, the U.S. has responded to this shift in export bases by imposing anti-dumping (AD) duties on automotive tires imported from Thailand (see Figure 2).

Will Thai automotive tires face new tariffs under a Trump 2.0 era?
        Thailand’s automotive tire exports may face renewed risks, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential imposition of reciprocal tariffs at equal rates. These tariffs are expected to be considered after April 1 and would target countries running significant trade surpluses with the U.S. Thailand, along with other key competitors in the U.S. automotive tire market, could be among the affected countries. This excludes competitors such as Mexico and Canada, who are currently in negotiations with the U.S. regarding a potential 25% tariff under other trade protection measures.
The reciprocal tariff rates that each country may face are likely to vary based on the import tariff rates that those countries apply to U.S. products (Table 1)

What would be the impact on Thailand’s automotive tire exports if they are subject to the U.S. reciprocal tariffs?
        KResearch is of the view that if both Thailand and its competitors are subject to the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, the impact on exports of passenger car and pickup truck tires to the U.S. may be minimal. However, exports of bus and truck tires may face increased risks due to reduced price competitiveness, as outlined below.

•    Export prospects for passenger car and pickup truck tires to the U.S. are expected to remain viable based on the following:

o    Thailand’s import tariff rates for passenger car and pickup truck tires are lower than competitors’, even if they are subject to reciprocal tariffs. This is due to the fact that the current import tariff rate on Thai passenger car and pickup trucks is relatively low at 7.82%. However, the rate is slightly higher than the general Most Favored Nation (MFN) rate of 4%. Additionally, the potential reciprocal tariff that the U.S. may impose on Thailand is only 10%, which is still lower than those of competitors (see Figure 3).

o    The price of Thai passenger car and pickup truck tires, including U.S. import tariffs, is expected to remain lower than key competitors, even with increased reciprocal tariffs. This is because both the starting import price and the potential reciprocal tariff rate that Thailand may face are relatively low, compared to its competitors (see Figure 4).

•    Export prospects for bus and truck tires to the U.S. are expected to face pricing risks compared to competitors, particularly Vietnam and Cambodia, based on the following:

o    Thailand’s import tariff rates for bus and truck tires are expected to be higher than those of competitors if subjected to the U.S. reciprocal tariffs.  This is because Thailand’s current import tariff rate for bus and truck tires is already higher than that of competitors, at 16.33%. As a result, even if Thailand faces a lower reciprocal tariff, the overall import tariff rate applied to Thailand would remain higher than that of all of its competitors (Figure 5).

o    The price of Thai bus and truck tires, including U.S. import tariffs, is expected to exceed that of competitors’ prices (Figure 6). Specifically, prices from Vietnam and Cambodia are expected to be at least 24% lower than Thailand's, and these countries are gradually increasing their market share in the U.S. (Figures 7).

Will Thai automotive tire exports to the U.S. continue to grow in 2025?
       For 2025, KResearch forecasts that overall Thai automotive tire exports to the U.S. are likely to grow by 5%, reaching a total of 61 million tires. This is mainly driven by the export of passenger car and pickup truck tires, which account for 72% of total tire exports to the U.S., as they remain competitive in terms of price even if Thailand and its competitors are subject to reciprocal tariffs starting after April 1. However, if Thailand is the only country subject to reciprocal tariffs, or if competitors face lower tariff rates, Thailand’s competitiveness in the U.S. market will likely be adversely affected.

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