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23 Dec 2024

Econ Digest

The Thai Snack Market: Slowing Positive Factors, Projected 2% Sales Growth in 2025 with a Market Value of 50.4 Billion Baht

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  • In 2025, sales of Thai snack products are projected to reach 50.4 billion baht, reflecting a 2% growth, which marks a slowdown from the 6% growth recorded in 2024. The savory and spicy snack segment, which constitutes the core market, is expected to grow at a modest rate of approximately 1.4%. This deceleration is attributed to the slower growth in the number of travelers, video streaming users, and large-scale events.
  • In contrast, the snack categories that are anticipated to outperform the overall market in 2025 include crackers and biscuits, with a projected growth rate of 2.7%, driven by urbanization and the expansion of modern retail stores. Additionally, the segment comprising seaweed-, meat-, and grain-based snacks is expected to grow by 2.4%, supported by an increasing consumer trend toward healthier food choices.
        In 2025, sales of Thai snack products are expected to grow by 2%, marking a slowdown from the 6% growth recorded in 2024 (Figure 2). This deceleration is primarily due to weaker positive factors, compared to 2024, particularly the slower expansion of Thailand’s tourism sector. As a result, the consumption of snack products during travel and social gatherings is projected to see only modest growth. Additionally, key production costs, particularly for certain essential raw materials, are expected to increase.
        The Thai snack market can be categorized into three segments, based on sales share. The largest segment comprises savory and spicy snacks, accounting for approximately 51% of total sales, followed by crackers and biscuits at 36%, and seaweed-, meat-, and grain-based snacks at 13% (Figure 3).
Consumers primarily consume snack products during social or travel-related activities, termed “We Time,” which accounts for 54% of total snack consumption. The remaining 46% occurs during individual leisure time, known as “Me Time” (Figure 4).
        The domestic snack market is highly competitive, driven by a large number of market participants and an increasing influx of imported products. Currently, there are over 590 registered corporate entities operating in Thailand’s snack industry, according to data from the Department of Business Development. Additionally, the snack market maintains a relatively high gross profit margin of approximately 20–35%, partly due to the relatively low cost of agricultural raw materials, which enables strong value creation. This profitability has attracted a substantial number of new entrants, intensifying market competition and resulting in a highly competitive “Red Ocean” environment.
        The intense competition is primarily driven by major industry players who benefit from economies of scale and maintain a continuous product rotation. These leading firms actively invest in innovation and creativity by introducing new flavors and product lines to sustain the market dynamic. Although existing products remain popular, maintaining brand vibrancy and market engagement is a crucial driver of business growth. Leading players effectively manage costs and marketing expenditures, enabling them to implement regular promotional campaigns to stimulate sales, enhance brand awareness, and encourage consumption. In contrast, smaller players face greater challenges in competing within the market.
        Although major players dominate the market, competition at the product level remains intense. Companies must not only compete among the diverse range of snack products but also contend with cross-category competition from other snack alternatives, such as confectionery, dim sum, French fries, and meatballs. Consequently, overall market expansion is constrained by the difficulty of increasing consumption frequency. To address this challenge, some firms employ marketing strategies designed to attract and engage key target demographics, particularly teenagers. These strategies often include collectible promotional items, such as hugely popular game cards, along with collectible coins, stickers, and plush toys, to stimulate sales and reinforce brand engagement.
        The growing influx of diverse imported snacks, including popular Chinese and Korean fast food items such as fried chicken, is further intensifying competition in the Thai snack market. Although the volume of imported snacks remains relatively small, from 2020 to 2023, imports of crackers and wafers have grown at an average rate exceeding 8% from 2020 to 2023, with a significant 11% increase in the first 10 months of 2024.
        Conversely, Thai snack exports, which account for approximately 18% of total volume, are facing mounting challenges. From 2021 to 2023, export volumes contracted by an average of 0.5% per year. While the first 10 months of 2024 showed a positive 7% uptick, the outlook remains uncertain due to intense competition, particularly in the Chinese market. There, both established and new snack brands, combined with lower pricing, are likely to exert continued pressure on Thai snack exports.

The savory or spicy snack segment
        This segment represents the largest market, consisting of products such as potato chips and extruded snacks. In 2025, sales in the savory or spicy snack category are expected to grow by 1.4%, a slowdown from 4.2% in 2024 (Figure 5). Although this segment is anticipated to grow at a slower rate than the overall market, its strong brand presence, or Brand Power, plays a crucial role in fostering high consumer loyalty. This brand strength helps sustain sales and maintain the largest market share in the snack industry. This is reflected in the ranking of potato chips from major players as the most powerful snack brand in the 2024 "The Most Powerful Brands of Thailand" awards.
        Sales of savory or spicy snacks are expected to grow in 2025, driven by the expansion in the number of both Thai and international travelers in Thailand. However, growth is anticipated to slow down from the high base achieved in 2024. In the first nine months of 2024, the number of Thai travelers grew by 9.4%, while international tourist arrivals saw a significant increase of 22.9%. Expenditures on food and beverages, including snacks, accounted for 23% of the total spending by international tourists (according to data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports).    
        Consumers often enjoy savory or spicy snacks while streaming videos and attending major events. In 2025, the number of Thai users streaming movies, TV shows, YouTube content, and live broadcasts such as sports and music is expected to grow, though at a slower pace (Figure 6). Additionally, the number of major events in 2025 is expected to decrease, with only the SEA Games scheduled towards the end of the year, compared to 2024, which featured both the Olympics and the UEFA European Championship. As a result, overall consumption of savory or spicy snacks is expected to experience modest growth. However, during the World Cup period, consumption of Thai savory or spicy snacks is anticipated to double, compared to the same period without the World Cup.
        Regarding raw materials, which account for approximately 30% of total production costs, the price of key ingredients such as potatoes is expected to rise in 2025, driving up production costs. This increase in costs limits the ability of businesses to implement marketing strategies aimed at boosting sales, such as promotional offers (prizes, discounts). This is reflected in the decline of selling expenses, which contrasts with rising raw material prices (Figure 7), limiting the scope for price-based competition.

The Crispbread and Biscuits segment
        This segment consists of crispbread and biscuits (crackers, cookies, and wafers). In 2025, sales of crispbread and biscuits are expected to grow by 2.7%, a slowdown from 8.7% in 2024 (Figure 8).
        Sales of crispbread and biscuits are expected to increase in 2025, driven by urbanization, where the fast-paced lifestyle boosts demand for on-the-go snacks or meal replacements. This trend is reflected in the growth in Thailand’s urban population, which rose from 35.2 million in 2016-2019 to 37.6 million in 2020-2023 (data from Our World in Data). This corresponds with the rise in sales of crispbread and crackers, which increased to 85,000 tons from 83,000 tons.
        Additionally, Thai consumers predominantly purchase crispbread and biscuits through modern retail channels, particularly hypermarkets and convenience stores, which represent up to 56% of total sales channels. These retail channels have shown continuous growth in their number of outlets (Figure 9), enabling better access to consumers and catering to the urban lifestyle that prioritizes convenience.
        However, the crispbread and biscuit market is expected to be affected by the rising prices of certain key raw materials in 2025, in line with global market trends as forecasted by the World Bank. Notably, sugar prices are expected to increase by 2.2%, while butter prices are anticipated to rise by 6.4%. This will impact marketing strategies in the same way as the savory or spicy snack segment, as outlined previously.

The Seaweed, Meat, and Grains Snacks segment
        The segment of snacks made from seaweed, meat, and grains includes products derived from seaweed, fish, squid, shrimp, pork, chicken, and legumes. In 2025, sales in this category are projected to grow by 2.4%, slowing down from 5.6% in 2024 (Figure 10).
        The growth of snacks made from seaweed, meat, and grains in 2025 is anticipated to be driven by a rising health-conscious trend, such as higher protein consumption and lower sodium intake. Although the sodium content of these snacks is similar to that of savory or spicy snacks of the same weight, major players in the seaweed snack segment have reduced sodium by 50%, while major potato chip producers have lowered it by 30%. This has prompted some consumers to opt for seaweed snacks as a substitute.
        However, demand for seaweed, meat, and grain-based snacks from foreign tourists- particularly seaweed products, which are popular souvenirs-is expected to slow down due to the deceleration in foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand. Expenditure on souvenirs, including snacks, account for approximately 18% of foreign tourists’ total spending (source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports).
  
The risks of the Thai snack industry in the medium-to-long term
  • The number of tourists visiting Thailand is expected to grow at a slower rate, while the Thai population is projected to decline, with a rising elderly population. As a result, snack consumption in Thailand is estimated to grow at a low rate of around 2-5% annually over the next five years. Although a moderate increase in tourist arrivals may support snack consumption, the growth will be offset by the ongoing decline in Thailand’s population, which has been shrinking since 2020. Additionally, Thailand has entered an “Aged Society” and is predicted to become a “Super-Aged Society” by 2029, which will further limit overall snack consumption growth. The elderly segment consumes only 17% of the total snack consumption, compared to 77% consumed by the youth demographic (based on analysis from the National Statistical Office).
  • The proposed “salt tax” is under government consideration as a future tax measure for salty snacks, which is expected to impact snack sales in Thailand. In Hungary, a salt tax has been imposed on high-salt snacks at a rate of 0.8 euros per kilogram of salt, resulting in a 12% decline in snack sales (according to the World Health Organization).

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