• Thailand’s exports in January 2025 grew by 13.6% year-on-year (YoY), surpassing expectations and marking the highest growth during the same period since 2018. This growth was driven by several factors:
o The export of electronics continued to perform well, supported by the upward cycle of electronics and the acceleration of imports by the US, which helped boost Thai exports to the US by 22.4% YoY. Products that saw strong growth included computers and components, as well as HDDs and transformers.
o Additionally, exports to China continued to show favorable growth for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 13.2% YoY. This was partly driven by strong growth in exports of intermediate goods, such as plastics and chemicals. Exports to ASEAN also resumed growth for the first time in three months, rising by 4.8%, supported by a temporary boost from exports related to aircraft. Excluding this factor, exports to ASEAN continued to grow by 0.9% YoY.
• Thailand’s outward trade is expected to benefit from the acceleration of imports in various markets through to the first quarter of 2025. While South Korea’s exports grew by 16.0% YoY in the first 20 days of February 2025, the average export performance since the beginning of 2025 has contracted by 0.8% YoY, reflecting a weakening momentum.
• However, due to the uncertainty surrounding the US import tariff increases, KResearch has initially estimated that the impact of US tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by -0.5%. This impact has already been incorporated into the overall Thai export forecast for 2025 at 2.5%, a decline from that reported in the previous year. The impact stems from:
o The US has imposed a 25% import tariff on steel, aluminum, semiconductors, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and processed wood. Although Thai exports in these product categories represent a relatively small share of total exports to the U.S. (Figure 2), it is expected that exports of small passenger cars from Thailand to the US will contract in 2025.
o The reciprocal tariff measures, expected to be implemented in April 2025, place Thailand at risk of facing higher import tariffs. This is due to: 1) Thailand’s high trade surplus with the U.S., ranked 11th in 2024, and 2) Thailand’s higher combined import tariff rate (MFN) along with the value-added tax (VAT), compared to the U.S. and being the highest among ASEAN countries (Figure 3). Products where Thailand’s tariff rates exceed those of the US include agricultural goods such as palm oil, sugar, and automobiles, which are industries protected in Thailand.
o However, Thailand will likely need to increase imports from the US, particularly in agricultural products such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, as well as energy products like crude oil and natural gas, plus weapons and military equipment. This is similar to the trade agreement India previously negotiated with the U.S. (Figure 4).
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