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In 2025, revenue from Thailand’s natural gas business is expected to remain broadly stable but will still fall short of the 2023 level. This is because the Pool Gas price is projected to increase by 0.4%, driven by higher average LNG import prices as compared with the previous year, while domestic natural gas demand is expected to decline by 0.3%.
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Although gas demand in the power generation sector is set to rise, supported by the expansion of urban households, industrial demand is expected to contract in line with reduced manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, the transportation sector (NGV) is also expected to decline, reflecting the continued decrease in the number of CNG powered vehicles.
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Natural gas imports are forecast to fall by 5.5%. Imports from Myanmar are expected to decrease due to declining production at Myanmar’s major gas fields. At the same time, LNG imports are also expected to decline, in line with weaker domestic natural gas demand. Revenue from Thailand’s natural gas business is expected to remain flat in 2025 but will still be lower than in 2023. Revenue is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, yet remain 18% below the 2023 level. This is because the Pool Gas price is expected to increase by 0.4% this year but still remain 20% lower than in 2023 (Figure 2). The Pool Gas price is calculated as a weighted average of natural gas prices from the Gulf of Thailand (Gulf Gas), Myanmar Gas, and imported LNG. The Pool Gas price in 2025 remains below the 2023 level due to changes in the natural gas pricing structure implemented in May 2024, under which the petrochemical sector shifted from using the Gulf Gas price to partially using the Pool Gas price—resulting in a reduction in the overall Pool Gas price. However, the Pool Gas price this year is expected to increase when compared with 2024 due to the following factors:
1. The average LNG import price is expected to increase from the previous year, driven by rising Henry Hub and Platts JKM natural gas prices. This reflects tighter supply conditions in the United States, coupled with strong LNG demand in Asia during the first quarter, which reduced gas inventories and supported higher natural gas prices—even amid economic pressures stemming from ongoing trade tensions.
2. However, Gulf Gas prices, which are linked to Dubai crude oil, may decline in line with the downward trend in Dubai crude prices. They also face additional pressure from natural gas supply in the Gulf of Thailand, which is expected to operate at full production capacity throughout the year.
Gross profit per unit of each operator group in the natural gas value chain is expected to decline.
1. Natural gas suppliers: In 2025, the gross profit per unit of natural gas suppliers is expected to decline slightly, by around 0.5%, due to higher costs driven by an increase in the average imported gas price in line with global market trends. This occurs despite lower production costs for Gulf of Thailand gas as compared with the previous year, supported by economies of scale as the Gulf gas fields are able to operate at full production capacity.
2. Gas Separation Plants (GSPs): The gross profit per unit of GSPs is expected to contract by 8%, as the cost of feed gas for processing increases following the shift to using the Pool Gas price from mid Q2 2024 onward, instead of the previously applied Gulf Gas price.
Thailand’s natural gas demand is expected to decline by 0.3% in 2025 (Figure 3).
Natural gas consumption in Thailand is categorized into three key markets: the power generation sector, the industrial sector, and the transportation sector (NGV) (Figure 4). The demand outlook for natural gas can be analyzed as follows:
1. Demand in the power generation sector is expected to grow by 0.9% (Figure 5).
This is driven by rising electricity consumption from urban households, along with increasing electricity usage in the service sector as service related businesses continue to recover from the COVID 19 pandemic. Natural gas remains the primary fossil fuel used by power plants for electricity generation.
2. Industrial natural gas demand is expected to contract by 1.5% (Figure 6).
This decline reflects reduced manufacturing activity amid a slowdown in both the global and domestic economies, influenced by trade tensions and the influx of Chinese products. As a result, natural gas consumption in industrial plants for production processes is falling. Although producers may temporarily ramp up output for exports in the short term to prepare for upcoming U.S. tariff measures in Q2, this is only a temporary boost and is insufficient to offset the broader economic slowdown and declining overall demand.
3. Natural gas demand in the transportation sector (NGV) is expected to decline by 14.3% (Figure 7). This follows the continued reduction in the number of CNG powered vehicles (Figure 8), coupled with a decline in NGV service stations, as operators increasingly shift their focus toward more profitable non NGV businesses. The number of NGV stations fell by 23% in 2024.
Thailand’s natural gas imports are expected to decline by 5.5% in 2025 (Figure 9).
1. Imports of natural gas from Myanmar are expected to decrease by 9.6% (Figure 10) due to the continued decline in production from Myanmar’s major gas fields, such as Yadana and Zawtika. This decline is driven by natural field depletion and a lack of new investment, stemming from ongoing political instability in Myanmar.
2. LNG imports are expected to decline by 3.9% (Figure 10) as Thailand’s natural gas demand is projected to contract this year, while the Erawan gas field is expected to operate at full capacity throughout the year. In addition, long term LNG import contracts with the United States are scheduled to begin deliveries in 2026, reducing the need for additional short term LNG purchases in 2025.
Medium to long term risks for Thailand’s natural gas industry
• The draft Power Development Plan 2024 (PDP 2024) may exert downward pressure on future natural gas usage for electricity generation. The draft plan indicates that the share of natural gas–fired power generation will be reduced to 41% of total installed capacity, while the share of clean energy will be increased to 51% by 2037. This contrasts with the projected natural gas share of around 60% in 2025.
• Domestic natural gas supply is expected to decline, necessitating increased LNG imports. The draft Gas Plan 2024 (2024–2037) indicates that domestic gas supply will fall to only 36% of total supply by 2037, down from 55% in 2024, due to the aging of major gas fields such as Erawan and Bongkot. However, Thailand’s gas supply outlook could change depending on negotiations regarding the Thailand–Cambodia Overlapping Claims Area (OCA), which contains natural gas reserves, although the outcome remains uncertain and will take time.
• Uncertainty regarding gas imports from Myanmar poses risks to supply stability. The Yadana and Zawtika fields are approaching the end of their contracts, which expire in 2028 and 2044, respectively. Combined with Myanmar’s ongoing political instability, this increases the risk of supply disruptions or reduced gas volumes exported to Thailand.
• LNG import terminals may become insufficient to accommodate rising LNG import volumes in the future. Although Thailand is expanding its LNG terminals, such as at Map Ta Phut and Nong Fab, delays in infrastructure expansion could create bottlenecks in gas handling and potentially lead to shortages during periods of high demand.
• The government’s restructuring of natural gas pricing will affect retail gas prices. The new pricing framework is still under review by relevant government agencies and industry stakeholders. The Pool Gas price is expected to be adjusted downward through changes to the weighted-average cost allocation, which will differ across consumer sectors.
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