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22 Jun 2020

Econ Digest

After the lockdown, Thais will travel to...

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        The COVID-19 situation in Thailand has improved to the extent that the government has eased lockdown measures on interprovincial travel, public transport systems, airports, and tourist destinations. To help businesses in the tourism sector that were severely affected by the outbreak, the Thai cabinet approved packages to promote domestic tourism, scheduled for implementation from July until October 2020.

        A KResearch survey on public travel plans found that 47.7% of respondents were influenced by the tourism stimulus packages in their decision to travel. At the same time, 60.1% of the sample group plan to travel domestically in the next 1-3 months (post-lockdown period). KResearch assesses that these government tourism stimulus packages would likely encourage more Thais to travel, which will generate an additional THB 41 billion in incremental revenue for the domestic tourism market, compared to a scenario without such incentives.

        However, given the fragile purchasing power and business challenges under the New Normal, market recovery is not expected in the second half of 2020. Coupled with the fact that the market was hit hard in the first half of the year, and under the assumption that there is no new severe outbreak in Thailand, KResearch estimates that domestic tourism in 2020 will reach between 89.5 and 91.5 million person-trips, or a contraction of 45.2-46.4% from the previous year. Meanwhile, revenue from domestic tourism is expected at THB 545 to 567 billion, or a contraction of 47.5-49.5% compared to the previous year, which is a better forecast than previously estimated.
        Looking ahead, businesses still face many challenges. Amidst intense competition, entrepreneurs need to adjust their marketing strategies to leverage government measures. Offering special tourism packages for those who cannot register to receive benefits from government measures or encouraging repeat visits by providing special price packages can help attract and retain customers.

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