25 Oct 2019
International Economy
We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut its policy rate by another 0.25 percent at its meeting scheduled for October 29-30, 2019. Although the Fed resolved to steadily trim its policy rates at the latest two meetings and announced the purchase of short-term treasury bonds in mid-November, the US economic performance overall and inflation expectations are continuing to fall and this may suggest that such actions may not be sufficient. Signs of a contraction seen in the consumption sector may inhibit the US economy to grow at less than that projected by the Fed. ...Read more
21 Oct 2019
The Chinese economy grew 6.0 percent YoY in 3Q19, representing the slowest growth in almost 30 years and declining from the 6.2 percent pace recorded during 2Q19. The disappointing economic performance, which stands at the lower end of China’s growth target, will likely force the government to introduce new economic stimuli in order to ensure that its 2019 economic growth remains within the set target band of 6.0-6.5 percent YoY. Meanwhile, weak internal and external demand has steadily inhibited the Chinese economic growth while a series of economic stimuli implemented by the government may not be sufficient to shore up the economy. In addition, risk in the financial sector as a result of lofty debt has forced Beijing to be cautious over its economic stimuli, in particular monetary policy....Read more
9 Oct 2019
Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car production capacity will likely increase ahead amid a transition towards electric vehicles if Vietnam accelerates improvements in various aspects. These include economic development, implementation of appropriate policies to support the automotive and auto-parts industry, strengthening lending system of financial institutions, offering all segments of the society greater access to finance and building confidence of prospective buyers towards Vietnamese-made cars. ...Read more
11 Nov 2019
Services
The rapid aging of population is being seen in many developing countries, while most advanced nations have become full-fledged aging societies. Thailand has been an aging society since 2005 and is expected to become an aged society in 2022 or three years at the earliest. Currently, about 6-8 provinces in Thailand have become aged societies, namely Lampang, Phrae, Chainat, Sing Buri, Ang Thong, Samut Songkhram and probably Lamphun and Uttaradit. It is likely that Thailand will be the first country among developing countries to become an aged society; thereafter a super-aged society by about 2032. ...Read more
8 Nov 2019
Over the past five years, Thai companies offering road transport services have faced fiercer competition due to an expansion of international logistics giants in Thailand. In the past, these international logistics giants used to focus on serving export oriented industrial manufacturers. Recently, they have expanded to domestic freight transportation. Moreover, these international logistics firms use digital technology to enhance their logistics management to gain a comparative advantage over Thai companies. Their presence has inevitably affected the local carriers....Read more
As subdued consumer purchasing power continues to pressure the retail business, we at KResearch expect that retail sales will grow approximately 2.7-3.0 percent YoY in 2020, against the 3.1 percent pace projected for 2019. Traditional retail stores and hypermarkets, focusing on grassroots and low-to medium-income earners, are expected to experience limited growth while supermarkets and e-commerce, targeting medium-to high-income earners, may record better growth than other retail segments....Read more
Financial Institutions
Net loans of commercial banks in September 2019 expanded within a limited range, due to lackluster signs of overall economic activity. Moreover, some big commercial banks have exercised a cautious approach in approving loans to ensure the quality of loans. Meanwhile, the growth of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) business loans remained unchanged. Hence, an expansion of retail loans continued to play a prominent role in driving the overall loan expansion. ...Read more
Financial Markets
The Baht hit a new 6-year high. The Baht rose along with other regional currencies amid foreign investors’ net buying orders for Thai bonds early in the week. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell on weak US economic data, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would cut its benchmark rate further at the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 29-30. The Baht extended gains and hit the strongest level in over 6 years on technical-buying after it strengthened past the THB30.20/USD level later in the week. ...Read more
18 Oct 2019
The Baht rose to test the THB30.25/USD level last week. The Baht briefly fell early-to mid-week in line with other regional currencies amid concerns about the slower global growth outlook. However, the Baht rebounded later in the week on the back of the US dollar’s sell-offs due to weak US economic data, reinforcing expectation that the Fed might cut its policy rate at the FOMC meeting scheduled for this month. Positive signal of the BREXIT deal also weighed down the US dollar sentiment. ...Read more