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Thailand’s economic recovery challenged by soaring inflation
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เศรษฐกิจ

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25 Jul 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, July 26-27, 2022 Another 0.75% rate hike likely amid steady increases in inflation while the US economy shows signs of cooling down (Business Brief No.3976)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for July 26-27, 2022. The latest inflation figure for June hit a record four-decade high of 9.1 percent YoY, prompting the Fed to place more weight on the inflation risk. The likelihood that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 1.0 percent looks slimmer than a 0.75 percent rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting because it would be the steepest rate increase in more than four decades, thus triggering market jitters if the Fed did so. Additionally, markets would view that the Fed might be overly concerned about inflation and that inflation might not be manageable, hence prompting the Fed to implement a more aggressive rate hike than previously signaled. For this reason, the Fed may have to weigh the potential impact of its aggressive policy tightening drive. ...Read more

16 Jul 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. (Current Issue No.3975)

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. In the second half of 2022, China’s economy will likely improve but continue to face risks from its zero-COVID policy and ongoing property sector slowdown. For full-year 2022, its economic growth is projected to be in a range of 3.7-4.2 percent....Read more

1 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

25th Anniversary of the “Tom Yun Kung” crisis: Current economic situation may not repeat the past (Current Issue No.3330)

July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact of the US dollar, particularly the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening. The softening Baht currently differs from that seen in 1997 because its depreciation then was due to the floating of the Thai currency to reflect its weak fundamentals at that time. Additionally, the Baht’s volatility in 2022 is almost consistent with the overall picture of other Asian currencies, suggesting the Bank of Thailand’s continuing efforts in maintaining the Baht’s stability amid uncertainties surrounding many factors....Read more

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22 Jul 2022

Services

Nursing home business, 2022: Turnover to reach only THB12.7 billion (Current Issue No.3335)

Although consumer purchasing power is being pressured by the high cost of living and uncertainties surrounding COVID-19, the nursing home business may continue to perform relatively well during 2022 as it is one of the healthcare services that are necessary for many seniors/patients. Additionally, the consumer segments that use nursing home services are those having adequate purchasing power as an average service fee is relatively high in line with the standards and expertise of related personnel, including the convenience in transferring patients to hospitals if more sophisticated treatments are needed or in case of emergency. ...Read more

22 Jul 2022

Industry

BEV market attractive to potential players with readiness in the short term, though challenges remain in the long term due to ongoing industry developments (Current Issue No.3334)

Presently, competition in the domestic car market, particularly the BEV market, has changed significantly. Thailand has undertaken greater efforts of investment to retain its domestic automotive industry by providing extensive support from this year through to 2025. ...Read more

1 Jul 2022

Tourism

Cancellation of pandemic-related restrictions on inbound tourists effective July 1, 2022 – a main driver for Thai tourism in 2H22 (Current Issue No.3329)

On July 1, 2022, the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) fully reopens the country for international tourist arrivals by cancelling Thailand Pass registration and health insurance requirements for foreigners – this action is a major supportive factor for Thai tourism, which has long been affected by COVID-19. Thailand’s reopening at this time is very important, as it should prompt a surge of inbound tourists in the second half of 2022, particularly during the high season. Also, if the authorities can still control the COVID-19 situation, this will be a boon to domestic tourism in the next phase....Read more

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26 Jul 2022

Financial Institutions

Outlook for Sustainable Finance (Current Issue No.3336)

Sustainable finance has seen rapid growth worldwide. In 2021, sustainability debt instruments were valued at USD 929,700 million, or 10x growth over the past five years, while sustainability loans amounted to USD 716,561 million, or 7x growth from 2018. ...Read more

15 Jul 2022

Financial Institutions

Thai commercial banks, 2H22: Supervision of fragile debtors needed as interest rates are set to increase (Current Issue No.3331)

We at KResearch assess that core business income of commercial banks in Thailand remained weak during 2Q22. Particularly, their non-interest income was pressured by murky economic conditions, while volatility in the capital market also hurt their investment portfolios. However, net interest income and net interest margin (NIM) increased slightly in line with loan growth. ...Read more