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11 Dec 2024

Econ Digest

China’s exports surged by 6.7%YoY in November 2024 before the US eyes an escalation of the trade war with China

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  • China’s exports surged by 6.7%YoY in November 2024, despite slowing from 12.7%YoY in October 2024 and falling below the market’s expectations of 8.5%YoY after the end of disrupting factors of transportation delays and disruptions from Typhoon Bebinca. Nonetheless, China’s exports to main markets continued to accelerate, with exports to the US, Europe, and ASEAN increasing by +8.0%YoY, +7.2%YoY and +14.9%YoY respectively.
  • China's exports are likely to expand by 5.6% in 2024. The attempt to accelerate its shipments to the US is expected to continue through 2025, ahead of anticipated US tariff hikes on Chinese imports, which are likely to take effect from mid-2025 onwards.
  • In 2025, China’s exports are projected to grow at a slower pace of 3.0% due to the new round of the trade war. Recently, the US President-elect announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on imported goods from China, but he has not yet specified the products subject to additional tariffs and supporting laws that will be used to increase the tariffs. If the US imposes Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to increase tariffs on Chinese goods as in the first round of the trade war, consumer goods will be most affected because they are not yet subject to tariffs under Trump 1.0.

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