Thai exports in
September 2020 stood at USD19.6213 billion, or a contraction of 3.9%YoY, amid a
rise in global demand compared to the previous month. Thai exports over the
first nine months shrank 7.3%YoY, driven
by the exports of electronic products and
electrical appliances
that grew 11.6% after four consecutive months of contraction (the exports of electrical appliances alone grew at an accelerating rate of 8.3%). Working from home is a factor that spurred an
increase in demand for such products worldwide. Moreover, electronic parts were exported at a faster rate amid concern
about the tensions between China and the United States over trade and
technology.
In addition, agricultural exports made a turnaround in growth, especially
cassava-based products, as well as fruits and vegetables. At the same time,
food products such as canned tuna, chilled and frozen pork, beverages and pet
food, as well as products related to infection prevention and handling of the
pandemic such as rubber gloves, were able to maintain consistent growth. The
products that suffered a decline in exports for September 2020 came from
product groups like cars, machines, refined oil, rubber, rice and granulated
sugar. Meanwhile, gold exports for September 2020 showed a regressive trend
with a 9.2% contraction, due to the declining gold prices after a massive
expansion in the month before.
A closer look at the Thai export
market reveals that exports to the US have continuously grown for four
consecutive months, just as exports to China, South Korea, Australia and
certain ASEAN countries like Vietnam and Malaysia bounced back to positive
territory. Conversely, exports to Japan and the European Union have fallen
significantly as global demand has otherwise seen a
recovery partly due to pent-up demand.
Since Thai exports over the first
nine months contracted by a smaller degree than previously expected, KResearch
has revised its forecast for Thai exports in 2020, with the contraction rate
being reduced from its original projection of 12.0% to 7%. Exported goods that have performed well over the past
months will tend to expand even more during the final quarter of 2020. Nonetheless, Thai exports during the
remainder of 2020 will still be exposed to risks of COVID-19 resurgence – particularly in Europe, where the second wave of the
outbreak may become more severe than the first one. Meanwhile, political factors like the US presidential
election and the matter of Brexit will likely lead to more volatility in
exchange rates and heightened pressure on Thai exports, going forward.
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