28 Dec 2020
International Economy
Four years have passed since the United Kingdom held a referendum in which the majority voted to withdraw from the European Union (EU), on June 23, 2016. The UK and the EU have finally concluded their negotiations over the Brexit deal prior to the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020. Going forward, the focus will be on ratification of the deal by the British Parliament for the agreement to enter into force, but in the meantime, it is expected to take effect at certain levels from January 1, 2021, onwards....Read more
22 Dec 2020
In the latest currency manipulation report published by the US Department of the Treasury in December 2020, Vietnam was designated as a currency manipulator because it fulfilled three benchmarks set by the US. These include an intervention in the currency-exchange market as evidenced by Vietnam’s net foreign currency purchases, which were equivalent to 5.1 percent of GDP (exceeding the benchmark set at 2.0 percent of GDP). Vietnam also fulfilled the other two benchmarks: A bilateral trade surplus with the US of more than USD20 billion and a current account surplus at 2 percent of GDP. ...Read more
Thai Economy
Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-based lockdown is not imposed in the country again, ...Read more
14 Jan 2021
Industry
On December 30, 2020, the US Department of Commerce announced affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping duty (AD) investigations of passenger vehicle and light truck tires (passenger tires) from Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam. It preliminarily determined that exporters from such countries have dumped passenger tires in the US. Its final determinations in these cases are scheduled for mid-2021. In the meantime, importers of passenger tires from these nations are required to pay AD duties at the rate of 13.25-22.21 percent. ...Read more
8 Jan 2021
Agriculture
KResearch assessed that the Thai agriculture in 2021 is set to have brighter outlook, with farm income projected to increase in the range of 1.0 to 1.5 percent YoY. This growth is attributable to an expected rise in farm output by 2.0 to 2.5 percent YoY due to higher levels of rainfall influenced by the La Niña phenomenon that would continue to benefit farming up until May 2021. ...Read more
25 Dec 2020
Services
KResearch views that the business environment for restaurants in 2021 is still fraught with risks as in the preceding year, as a new wave of local COVID-19 transmission, fierce competition among businesses and the yet-to-recover purchasing power will affect any recovery of restaurants in 2021 to varying degrees. Full-service restaurants may recover only slightly, with growth of 0.7 percent, while limited-service restaurants and street food stalls,...Read more
15 Jan 2021
Financial Markets
The Baht traded in a narrow range, but rose slightly later in the week. The Baht fell in line with the weaker Yuan and other regional currencies while the US dollar gained its strength on the rising US bond yields and buying orders amid US political uncertainty. However, the Baht pared losses somewhat later in the week, after the Fed Chair signaled that the Fed’s QE measures would continue and its policy rate would not be raised in the near future. ...Read more
13 Jan 2021
Financial Institutions
The new COVID-19 outbreak which has dragged on into 2021 continues to affect economic activity that had previously been on the verge of recovery. Such circumstances have further intensified the issues of financial vulnerability, lack of liquidity and deteriorating debt servicing ability among many groups of debtors. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) recently extended the period for retail borrowers to register for financial assistance from now until June 2021. Financial institutions have also been urged to expedite the issuance of relief measures to every group of debtors appropriate for their specific loan, taking into account the debtors’ risks. ...Read more
The Baht weakened at the end of the week. The Baht rose early in the week in line with the Yuan and other regional currencies while the US dollar had no new supportive factors. The Thai currency then pared gains along with weakening regional peers, as well as net foreign selling orders for Thai bonds. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded on the rising US bond yields and short-covering orders on the back of stronger-than-expected US economic data, including the ISM service index and weekly jobless claims figures. Meanwhile, the BOT relaxed foreign exchange regulations under the Non-resident Qualified Company Scheme (NRQC Scheme) to help reduce the Baht’s volatility, led by Baht transactions in the offshore markets....Read more