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10 Oct 2018

International Economy

Fed rate, oil prices and regional currencies are 3 factors weakening Thai Baht late this year (Current Issue No.2931)

It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds by foreign investors totaled THB4.63 billion and THB3.26 billion, respectively) or down by 2.6 percent from THB32.25/USD registered early October. Meanwhile, the Thai government 10-year bond yields steadily increased to 2.88 percent, the highest level in 21 months....Read more

21 Sep 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Kin Jae festival is expected to generate THB4.65 billion in BKK with healthy diet being the main reason to attract customers (Current Issue No.2927)

Kin Jae (vegetarian) is one of the main festivals that food and beverages suppliers and distributors, including fine restaurants, street food vendors, convenience stores and online operators, have paid attention as this annual event is one of the best periods to boost their sales and expand their customer base. KResearch’s survey on consumer behavior during Kin Jae festival finds that most Bangkok residents are interested in consuming vegetarian food, especially the working population (aged 25 and over). These customers said they want to purify their minds/refrain from consuming meat, while some are already regular consumers of Jae/vegetarian food....Read more

21 Sep 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 25-26 ... Expected Rate Increase of 0.25% ... Intensified Trade Conflicts to be Watched (Business Brief No.3760)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximum of USD50 billion per month. The US is still pursuing strong economic growth while its inflation is moving consistently with the Fed’s inflation target; such factors are supportive to the Fed’s continual policy rate hikes. Both the uptrend of the Fed’s policy rate and its accelerated balance sheet reduction remain a challenge for the emerging countries, which may face greater fund volatilities....Read more

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12 Oct 2018

Tourism

In spite of positive factors of inbound tourism in 4Q18, Thai tourism industry braces for more challenges ahead (Current Issue No.2933)

KResearch views that after the growth of inbound tourism in 3Q18 registered the lowest rate of the year, Thailand’s inbound tourism market should pick up in 4Q18 with approximately 9.56 million international travelers expected to visit Thailand, up 3.0 per cent YoY. This is because the last quarter is the holiday season in Thailand. In addition, Thai tourism is bolstered by international events hosted by Thailand during this time of the year. Additionally, Thailand’s key markets such as Russian and Chinese tourists are likely to improve when compared to sluggish activity in 3Q18....Read more

25 Sep 2018

Industry

Digital ID bill paves the way for Thailand to enter the digital era (Business Brief No.3762)

Under the Digital Identification bill, a National Digital Identification (NDID) committee will be set up to govern digital authentication, which will announce additional regulations for Digital ID. The Digital ID bill empowers the committee to regulate three areas: 1) digital identification verification system, 2) authorization system, and 3) personal data protection....Read more

21 Sep 2018

Trading

August Export Value Hit a New Record High of USD22.8 Billion while the US-China Trade Spat Begins to Have a Clearer Impact on Thai Shipments (Business Brief No.3761)

The value of Thailand’s outward trade reached THB22.794 billion for August, representing a new record high. However, the August export growth grew at a slower pace at 6.7 percent YoY, due partly to a high 2017 base and 66.6 percent contraction in gold shipments. If the value of gold exports was excluded, our August shipments grew 10.3 percent YoY. Factors contributing to favorable export growth over the past 18 straight months include the upturn in global crude oil prices. In August, global crude oil prices were substantially higher than August 2017. In addition, Thai car, accessories and auto-parts shipments to Vietnam reverted to high growth. Our agricultural exports also improved, including rice and cassava products, because their shipment volume contracted less. ...Read more

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10 Oct 2018

Financial Institutions

Regulation on Auto-for-Cash Loans: Creating Standard for Retail Financing (Current Issue No.2932)

Government policy to expand the supervision of the providers of auto-for-cash loans to be approved by the Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance is an important step toward more extensive supervisory scope with respect to financial service providers. With a well-defined, transparent business framework and a justifiable interest rate structure, this direction will tighten the protection of retail service users, low-income earners and self-employed persons who do not have proper access to financial institutions in the system...Read more

4 Oct 2018

Financial Institutions

Mortgage loan measures…to curb market imbalance before the uptrend of interest rates (Current Issue No.2929)

The Bank of Thailand has planned to issue macro-prudential measures to control speculation in the property market, where the measures are expected to set the loan-to-value (LTV) for the second home or other specific requirements to ensure debt servicing ability of the borrowers. KResearch views that the measures will impact the property developers’ business planning in terms of their marketing and will prompt them to take a more cautious approach for their product launch, especially when the property market is now facing an oversupply of unsold property projects and a challenge from the anticipated higher financial costs amid the cyclical uptrend of Thai interest rates....Read more

28 Sep 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht stayed in a tight range, while the SET index closed a bit higher than the last week level”

The Baht rose slightly late in the week, but its movement remained tight. The Baht fell early in the week in line with other regional currencies amid steepened tension related to the US-China trade deal after China canceled trade talks with the US before the latter’s new tariffs on Chinese goods were set to go into effect. In addition, the US dollar was supported by position adjustments ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Baht, however, rebounded later in the week on net foreign bond and stock buying orders. ...Read more