22 Apr 2020
International Economy
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a negative impact on CLMV economies through their dependency on foreign-sourced revenue from tourism and exports. Countries which are heavily dependent on foreign revenue are facing more negative effects during this crisis....Read more
17 Apr 2020
The Chinese economy contracted by 6.8 percent (YoY) in 1Q20, marking the first time that the Chinese economy has experienced a contraction since statistical reports began in 1992. The main reason for this phenomenon is the stringent COVID-19 disease control and prevention measures issued by the Chinese authorities, including lockdown orders and orders for domestic tour operators to cease tour package sales. Such measures have caused a partial stagnation of economic activity throughout China. Some of the impacts can be seen in retail sales and industrial production figures in 1Q20, which declined by 19.64 percent (YTD, YoY) and 8.4 percent (YTD, YoY), respectively....Read more
3 Apr 2020
The novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow in severity, with most parts of the world seeing no signs of easing or control of viral spread in the near future. The pandemic has plunged the world economy into a state of higher negative risk, as it enters a recession this year. Governments and central banks worldwide have issued stimulus packages - in the forms of monetary and fiscal measures - to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic via massive amount of funds. Generally, fiscal measures accentuate reduction of household and business debt burdens as well as ensuring that households and businesses continues to generate income. On the other hand, monetary measures place emphasis on enhancing liquidity, including the launch of soft loan schemes and relief of debt burdens. ...Read more
5 May 2020
Agriculture
KResearch assesses that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 will be a short-term factor causing the rubber price structure to change over the long term. This represents an important turning point that will result in a new normal of rubber prices, i.e., rubber prices will likely move within a narrow range and it will be difficult for prices to increase compared to those seen in the past. It is expected that the new normal of Thailand’s Natural Rubber Ribbed Smoked Sheet No. 3 (RSS3) prices will be within a range of THB30-50/kg. from 2020 onwards. ...Read more
24 Apr 2020
Trading
Thai exports to the US contracted 2.7 percent YoY in 1Q20. Excluding products related to arms and tanks for military drills, which caused our export base to become volatile, our shipments to the US grew 15.8 percent YoY. The increase was supported by the US-China trade war, which helped bolster our key exports, i.e., HDDs and auto tires, to the US. Other Thai shipments that met the needs of American consumers, such as automobiles, auto-parts and canned seafood products, grew at favorable pace, as well. ...Read more
21 Apr 2020
The value of Thailand’s outward trade reverted to growth for the first time in five quarters of 0.9 percent YoY in 1Q20, boosted by favorable gold and electronics shipments. However, oil-related exports were dampened by plummeting crude oil prices. ...Read more
8 May 2020
Financial Markets
The Baht rose to a 1-1/2 month high against the US dollar. The Baht edged down early in the week in line with net foreign stock and bond selling orders, while the US dollar rose as a safe-currency on worries about the global economic recession. However, the Baht rebounded strongly later in the week, along with other regional currencies, on the US dollar sell-offs for position adjustments ahead of the release of US non-farm payrolls data....Read more
The Baht rose slightly before paring gains somewhat later in the week. The Baht strengthened during early- to mid-week amid US dollar-selling orders from exporters, and net foreign bond buying orders. The Baht and other regional currencies also gained along with other risky assets, led by oil prices, on the back of rising tensions between the US and Iran. The Baht pared some gains later in the week, as the US dollar rose as a safe-haven currency amid concerns about the economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak. ...Read more
The Baht traded in a narrow range but rose slightly later in the week. The Baht weakened earlier in the week amid concerns about the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy, including that of Thailand. However, the Baht recovered later in the week on USD-selling orders from exporters, while the US dollar fell on signs seen in the slowing rates of COVID-19 infections in many countries, leading them to relax lockdown rules, and devise plans to reopen their economies....Read more