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Economic Analysis

25 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues (Business Brief No.3990)

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues... Read more

20 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Challenges related to ESG that businesses should watch out for in 2023 (Current Issue No.3382)

In 2023, countries around the world are grappling with economic uncertainty and stagnation, which may in turn affect sustainability or ESG operations of the business sector. ... Read more

13 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2023 GDP growth projected at 3.7% due to China’s reopening (Business Brief No.3986)

Around 25.5 million foreign tourists set to visit Thailand and Thai exports projected to shrink only 0.5% in 2023, thanks to China’s early reopening while global inflation may decline slower than expected ... Read more

12 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2023: Bangkokians’ spending projected to grow for the first time in three years, amid cautious spending (Current Issue No.3381)

Based on its survey findings, KResearch views that Chinese New Year in 2023 will likely see brighter prospects compared to last year, driven by the easing of the COVID-19 situation and the “Shop Dee Mee Khuen” (shop and payback) scheme. However, consumers’ spending behavior must be adjusted to accom... Read more

27 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Thai exports projected to shrink at 1.5% in 2023 amid weak demand in trade partners and declining global commodity prices (Business Brief No.3985)

Thailand’s export growth has slowed down substantially during 2H22 due to a number of factors. These include the high base of 2H21 and a noticeable weakness in demand seen in various export markets. As a result, Thai shipments contracted for the second consecutive month in November 2022 by 6.0 perce... Read more

23 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

The US preliminarily determines that Thai solar cells are circumventing AD/CVD measures…Short-term, limited impact on Thai exports amid looming competition with South Korea (Current Issue No.3376)

The US Department of Commerce announced the results of its preliminary investigation, finding that some Chinese manufacturers had established production bases in four ASEAN countries, including Thailand, in order to circumvent US anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) measures. If fin... Read more

22 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents resume New Year 2023 celebrations, with spending projected to reach THB30.9 billion (Current Issue No.3375)

Due to the fragile recovery seen in income and the high cost of living, consumers continue to be cautious about their spending. However, most of them have resumed outdoor activities, including travelling as COVID-19 has begun to ease. They have also organized celebrations during various festivities ... Read more

19 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)... Read more

21 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to amount to THB 3.2 billion, with reduced number of days of participation and meals consumed, amid rising prices of vegetarian food (Current Issue No.3346)

Due to rising vegetarian food prices in line with higher production costs, and floods damaging agricultural crops that are the main ingredients of vegetarian food, especially vegetables and tofu which typically see price hikes during the Kin Jae festival, the number of Bangkok residents participatin... Read more

31 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

The first minimum wage hike in two years, under different economic conditions… cost pass-through by business operators to remain limited in 2022 (Current Issue No.3342)

The tripartite national wage committee has resolved to raise the minimum wage rates for the year 2022, which will be proposed for the Cabinet’s approval to take effect on October 1, 2022. There are nine new minimum wage levels. The lowest rate is THB 328, and the highest is THB 354 (the current rate... Read more

10 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

Households begin adjusting their spending behavior as most of them view that product prices will remain high for at least another year. The KR-ECI for July 2022 improved from its lowest-ever level following a slight drop in oil prices over the past month.

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI in July 2022 improved to 32.5 and 34.0, from their lowest-ever levels at 30.8 and 32.9 reported for June 2022, due to energy prices that were slightly lower than June, albeit remaining high. Additionally, further relaxation of Thailand’s entry restrictions has ... Read more

1 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

25th Anniversary of the “Tom Yun Kung” crisis: Current economic situation may not repeat the past (Current Issue No.3330)

July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

New school year 2022: Education expenses set to rise 2.0 percent, with estimated value of THB 26.90 billion (Current Issue No.3324)

As the COVID-19 situation eases, students will be returning to study onsite per normal circumstances, with schools set to reopen on May 17. Generally, at this time of year, parents must assume the burden of their children’s education expenses. While the prices of energy and various goods have risen ... Read more

8 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

Songkran 2022: Price promotion campaigns and changes in behavior limits growth of tourism spending (Current Issue No.3321)

Every year, the Songkran festival is a time when Thais return to their home provinces to celebrate the Thai New Year with their families, while others go on day trips or overnight stays.... Read more

24 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2022: Spending expected to stall as Bangkokians focus on budget control amid surging product prices (Current Issue No.3303)

KResearch views that the gradual rise in product prices and living costs will continue to pressure Bangkokians’ spending during the Chinese New Year Festival in 2022. While the Omicron outbreak may have generated concern among consumers, some Bangkok residents of Chinese descent still plan to celebr... Read more

18 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents adjust spending behavior to cope with rising cost of living (Current Issue No.3302)

The rise in living costs, whether it is in food prices, electricity bills or commuting expenses, has affected and generated much anxiety among Bangkok residents, particularly low-income earners who make less than THB15,000 a month, the worst-affected income group in the capital. In general, people w... Read more

13 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Government’s Additional Borrowing during 2022-2023 May Affect Liquidity, but Still Manageable (Business Brief No.3962)

It is likely that the budget deficit during 2022-2023 will continue to rise higher than pre-pandemic levels, and this may in turn affect the government’s borrowing plans in 2022. KResearch expects that outstanding public debt (based on the calendar year) may approach THB9.90 trillion in 2022, an inc... Read more

12 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declines for the third consecutive month in December 2021 due to concerns over rising cost of living

For December 2021, KR-ECI continues to reflect concerns over the rising cost of living, particularly prices of food and beverages. During the recent New Year holiday, households were still worried about increasing expenses. As a result, December’s KR-ECI dropped to 33.9 percent from 34.7 percent in ... Read more

21 Dec 2021

Thai Economy

MPC meeting on December 22, 2021: Policy rate likely to be maintained at 0.5% amid increased uncertainty due to Omicron outbreak (Business Brief No.3960)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 22, 2021, amid heightened risk due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. As a result, the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand may be lower than ... Read more

13 Dec 2021

Thai Economy

New Year 2022: More Bangkok residents to celebrate the festive season outside their homes, with spending expected to reach THB 30.5 billion (Current Issue No.3291)

KResearch perceives that New Year 2022 will likely have a more festive atmosphere than the year before, thanks to improvements in the COVID-19 situation, better access to vaccines, the government’s measures to boost purchasing power and an expedited campaign to support businesses during the holiday ... Read more

9 Nov 2021

Thai Economy

Concerns over high cost of living caused October’s KR-ECI to decline Ongoing surge in oil prices and flood damage have caused prices of goods to rise in the short term

In October 2021, Thai households harbored increased concerns towards the economy and their living conditions, due to continuously rising energy prices and impact of recent floods, which have driven up vegetable prices. KR-ECI in October 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI dropped to 34.9 and 36.7, ... Read more

30 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to contract 8.2% in 2021, amid unfavorable circumstances and cautious spending (Current Issue No.3273)

While the COVID-19 situation and access to vaccines have started to improve, newly urgent matters like flooding and rising energy prices have rattled consumer confidence, sapping purchasing power and perhaps dissuading consumers from spending during the upcoming Kin Jae festival from October 6 – 14,... Read more

21 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s public debt ceiling raised… Fiscal stability to remain unaffected in the short term; additional income required in the long term (Business Brief No.3949)

The State Monetary and Fiscal Policy Committee approved a temporary debt limit increase from a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent to 70 percent. The higher ceiling is to expand the government’s fiscal space and would not pose a hindrance if the government has to secure a loan to implement medium-term f... Read more

20 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 to Generate 61.3 Million Kilograms in Infectious Waste in 2021, Resulting in Increased Disposal Costs (Current Issue No.3257)

The persistent COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and rising number of daily cases are set to generate increased amount of infectious waste during the remainder of 2021. We at KResearch project that the amount of infectious waste will reach roughly 61.3 million kilograms (excluding medical waste from Tha... Read more

16 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

KResearch revises downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to -0.5% due to economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3946)

The Thai economy in 1H21 grew more than previously assessed, as seen from economic indicators in 2Q21 which rose 7.5 percent YoY, mainly due to a low base effect and accelerated export growth. As a result, the Thai economy grew 2.0 percent YoY during the first half of 2021. However, the Thai economy... Read more

15 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Intensified Impact of COVID-19 Leads KResearch to revise downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to 1.0% (Business Brief No.3937)

We, at KResearch, have decided to revise downward our 2021 growth forecast for the Thai economy to 1.0 percent, from a prior estimate of 1.8 percent, because the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has become more severe than previously assessed. Due to limitations of the Thai public health system, mo... Read more

9 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households

“Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households Government’s new relief measures along with procurement and rollout of quality vaccines are urgently needed... Read more

29 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Net loss to Construction and Restaurant Businesses Set to Reach at least THB40 Billion within One Month of Partial Lockdown in Six Dark Red Zone Provinces (Current Issue No.3234)

The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Economic challenges amid COVID-19 third wave (Press June 10, 2021)

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has kept its Thai economic projection for 2021 unchanged at 1.8 percent. The research house views that the Thai economy remains mired in uncertainty due to the persistence of COVID-19 both domestically and abroad, as well as vaccination progress. In the next 1-2 ... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Households are still concerned about COVID-19 while dwindling savings have begun to affect their spending behavior

The relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures around mid-May and gradual implementation of the government’s relief measures helped push the KR-ECI up slightly to 37.3 in May, though remained low, compared to the 37.0 reported for April. Meanwhile, the 3-month Expected KR-ECI for May remained stati... Read more

25 May 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 Dents Household Liquidity, Forcing Parents to Cut their Children’s Educational Expenses during the 2021 School Year for the Second Straight Year (Current Issue No.3226))

It is expected that Thai parents will be grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic once again during the 2021 school year. KResearch recently conducted a survey on views of parents (who have children studying in kindergartens to high schools) towards the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the 2021 school y... Read more

20 May 2021

Thai Economy

Government’s New THB700 Billion Loan to Help Enhance Flexibility in Fiscal Management amid Increased Uncertainties under COVID-19 Pandemic (Business Brief No.3931)

The Cabinet recently approved the draft of an executive decree authorizing the government to borrow another THB700 billion, in addition to the previous THB1 trillion loan, which has almost been used up. The new loan is intended to help enhance the government’s flexibility in ensuring that the econom... Read more

18 May 2021

Thai Economy

Thai economy shrinks for the fifth consecutive quarter; relief measures remain instrumental amid economic contraction and rising cost of living (Business Brief No.3930)

The Thai economy in 1Q21 shrank 2.6 percent YoY, less than the market forecast of -3.3 percent. This smaller-than-expected contraction was mainly driven by the global economic recovery and domestic stimulus packages, with Thai exports starting to exhibit strong signs of recovery in line with the eco... Read more

14 May 2021

Thai Economy

Real Returns Pressured by Rising Inflation Stemming from Murky Economic Conditions, High Liquidity and MPC’s Policy (Current Issue No.3222)

Presently, there are concerns about rising inflation around the world, including in the US and Thailand. However, the nature of inflation and economic conditions in Thailand and the US differ. In Thailand, the current inflation has been driven by supply-side factors, and the fact that Thailand is be... Read more

11 May 2021

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI Declined as the Latest Wave of COVID-19 Dealt a Blow to Household Purchasing Power while Relief Measures Were Yet to be Implemented

The latest wave of COVID-19, which began in April, caused the April KR-ECI to plunge to 37.0 from the 40.4 reported in March. Household purchasing power was significantly weakened by the severe impact of COVID-19 while relief measures were yet to be implemented amid surging energy costs. All KR-ECI ... Read more

20 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2021 GDP Growth Projected to Slip to 1.8% due to the Latest Wave of COVID-19 (Business Brief No.3923)

Due to the impact of the latest wave of COVID-19, KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at a slow rate of only 1.8 percent in 2021, against our prior estimate of 2.6 percent. We are of the view that the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. Additi... Read more

9 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Households continue to face high uncertainty after the emergence of a new wave of COVID-19…shoring up confidence an urgent mission for the government

The COVID-19 situation has intensified with a considerable rise in the number of cases. The epicenter of the new wave is Bangkok, and it has spread nationwide at a rapid rate, once more plunging the economy and households’ confidence into a high degree of uncertainty. In the forthcoming period, KR-E... Read more

2 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Songkran 2021: Spending to remain subpar; Bangkokians gravitate towards celebrating at home (Current Issue No.3207)

KResearch projects that Bangkok residents’ spending during the 2021 Songkran festival will amount to THB 24 billion, a 4.0-percent contraction compared to Songkran in 2019 (excluding 2020, when the holiday was postponed). Tourism expenditure and travel costs for hometown trips may be particularly a... Read more

9 Mar 2021

Thai Economy

Government relief measures and positive expectations towards vaccines caused KR-ECI to recover at a faster rate compared to the post-lockdown period in 2020

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in February 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both rose from the previous month to 39.5 and 41.3, respectively. These figures indicate that Thai households’ concerns over their livelihood have declined from the previous month as the COVID-19 situ... Read more

15 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

Thai economy in 2021 to recover at 2.6%; downside risk lies in Thailand’s reopening for international tourists in the last quarter of the year (Business Brief No.3912)

The Thai economy in 2020 shrank less than expected due to the support of the government’s stimulus packages. In 2020, the Thai economy contracted by 6.1 percent, which is slightly less severe than KResearch’s projection of -6.7 percent. The smaller-than-expected contraction can be primarily attribut... Read more

9 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

New COVID-19 outbreak caused KR-ECI in January 2021 to drop from the previous month, though the Index was higher than during the first wave

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in January 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both fell from the previous month to 37.2 and 38.8, respectively. Almost every component of the Index dropped, particularly employment and income level post COVID-19 resurgence since mid-December 2020... Read more

2 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2021: Bangkokians’ spending to shrink 10.4%; COVID-19 scare prompts more consumers to shop online (Current Issue No.3185)

While the Thai government relaxed its COVID-19-related measures in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area on February 1, 2021, and has announced a special holiday in February ( a three-day weekend), the COVID-19 situation has yet to be brought fully under control. Consumers’ purchasing power has long been a... Read more

8 Jan 2021

Thai Economy

New Wave of COVID-19 Caused December KR-ECI to Decline for the First Time in 4 Months

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI fell to 40.2 and 40.7, respectively, in December 2020. All components of the KR-ECI also dropped. Households were more concerned about employment and income because of the resurgence of COVID-19 around mid-December 2020 (according to the survey conducted during... Read more

22 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month (Current Issue No.3173)

Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-ba... Read more

14 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

November KR-ECI Bounced Back to Near Pre-COVID-19 Levels, Supported by Government Consumption Stimulus Measures

The KR-ECI improved for the fifth consecutive month in November 2020, standing at 41.0, which was almost on par with the pre-COVID level of 40.6 in January 2020, because households, especially those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improvement was als... Read more

4 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

New Year, 2021: Bangkok Residents to Spend Almost the Same as in 2020 at THB30 Billion, Thanks to Consumption-Boosting Programs (Current Issue No.3164)

A recent poll conducted by KResearch shows that if there were no government consumption-boosting programs, most Bangkok residents would have spent only THB5,300/person on average during the upcoming 2021 New Year holiday season due to concern about the prolonged coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroa... Read more

16 Nov 2020

Thai Economy

Thai economy in 3Q20 recovered faster than expected; GDP for full-year 2020 to contract by not less than -7.0% (Business Brief No.3896)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted by less than the consensus forecast of -8.0 percent YoY. The satisfactory recovery of economic activity in 3Q20 can be attributed in part to pent-up demand after the relaxation of lockdowns across many countries, including Thailand. The less-t... Read more

11 Nov 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for Four Straight Months in October, Supported by Higher Income and Employment in the Agricultural Sector

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased for the fourth consecutive month in October 2020 because households, in particular those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improved sentiment seen in agricultural households was consistent with steady in... Read more