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Economic Analysis

30 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to contract 8.2% in 2021, amid unfavorable circumstances and cautious spending (Current Issue No.3273)

While the COVID-19 situation and access to vaccines have started to improve, newly urgent matters like flooding and rising energy prices have rattled consumer confidence, sapping purchasing power and perhaps dissuading consumers from spending during the upcoming Kin Jae festival from October 6 – 14,... Read more

21 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s public debt ceiling raised… Fiscal stability to remain unaffected in the short term; additional income required in the long term (Business Brief No.3949)

The State Monetary and Fiscal Policy Committee approved a temporary debt limit increase from a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent to 70 percent. The higher ceiling is to expand the government’s fiscal space and would not pose a hindrance if the government has to secure a loan to implement medium-term f... Read more

20 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 to Generate 61.3 Million Kilograms in Infectious Waste in 2021, Resulting in Increased Disposal Costs (Current Issue No.3257)

The persistent COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and rising number of daily cases are set to generate increased amount of infectious waste during the remainder of 2021. We at KResearch project that the amount of infectious waste will reach roughly 61.3 million kilograms (excluding medical waste from Tha... Read more

16 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

KResearch revises downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to -0.5% due to economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3946)

The Thai economy in 1H21 grew more than previously assessed, as seen from economic indicators in 2Q21 which rose 7.5 percent YoY, mainly due to a low base effect and accelerated export growth. As a result, the Thai economy grew 2.0 percent YoY during the first half of 2021. However, the Thai economy... Read more

15 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Intensified Impact of COVID-19 Leads KResearch to revise downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to 1.0% (Business Brief No.3937)

We, at KResearch, have decided to revise downward our 2021 growth forecast for the Thai economy to 1.0 percent, from a prior estimate of 1.8 percent, because the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has become more severe than previously assessed. Due to limitations of the Thai public health system, mo... Read more

9 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households

“Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households Government’s new relief measures along with procurement and rollout of quality vaccines are urgently needed... Read more

29 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Net loss to Construction and Restaurant Businesses Set to Reach at least THB40 Billion within One Month of Partial Lockdown in Six Dark Red Zone Provinces (Current Issue No.3234)

The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Economic challenges amid COVID-19 third wave (Press June 10, 2021)

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has kept its Thai economic projection for 2021 unchanged at 1.8 percent. The research house views that the Thai economy remains mired in uncertainty due to the persistence of COVID-19 both domestically and abroad, as well as vaccination progress. In the next 1-2 ... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Households are still concerned about COVID-19 while dwindling savings have begun to affect their spending behavior

The relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures around mid-May and gradual implementation of the government’s relief measures helped push the KR-ECI up slightly to 37.3 in May, though remained low, compared to the 37.0 reported for April. Meanwhile, the 3-month Expected KR-ECI for May remained stati... Read more

25 May 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 Dents Household Liquidity, Forcing Parents to Cut their Children’s Educational Expenses during the 2021 School Year for the Second Straight Year (Current Issue No.3226))

It is expected that Thai parents will be grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic once again during the 2021 school year. KResearch recently conducted a survey on views of parents (who have children studying in kindergartens to high schools) towards the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the 2021 school y... Read more

20 May 2021

Thai Economy

Government’s New THB700 Billion Loan to Help Enhance Flexibility in Fiscal Management amid Increased Uncertainties under COVID-19 Pandemic (Business Brief No.3931)

The Cabinet recently approved the draft of an executive decree authorizing the government to borrow another THB700 billion, in addition to the previous THB1 trillion loan, which has almost been used up. The new loan is intended to help enhance the government’s flexibility in ensuring that the econom... Read more

18 May 2021

Thai Economy

Thai economy shrinks for the fifth consecutive quarter; relief measures remain instrumental amid economic contraction and rising cost of living (Business Brief No.3930)

The Thai economy in 1Q21 shrank 2.6 percent YoY, less than the market forecast of -3.3 percent. This smaller-than-expected contraction was mainly driven by the global economic recovery and domestic stimulus packages, with Thai exports starting to exhibit strong signs of recovery in line with the eco... Read more

14 May 2021

Thai Economy

Real Returns Pressured by Rising Inflation Stemming from Murky Economic Conditions, High Liquidity and MPC’s Policy (Current Issue No.3222)

Presently, there are concerns about rising inflation around the world, including in the US and Thailand. However, the nature of inflation and economic conditions in Thailand and the US differ. In Thailand, the current inflation has been driven by supply-side factors, and the fact that Thailand is be... Read more

11 May 2021

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI Declined as the Latest Wave of COVID-19 Dealt a Blow to Household Purchasing Power while Relief Measures Were Yet to be Implemented

The latest wave of COVID-19, which began in April, caused the April KR-ECI to plunge to 37.0 from the 40.4 reported in March. Household purchasing power was significantly weakened by the severe impact of COVID-19 while relief measures were yet to be implemented amid surging energy costs. All KR-ECI ... Read more

20 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2021 GDP Growth Projected to Slip to 1.8% due to the Latest Wave of COVID-19 (Business Brief No.3923)

Due to the impact of the latest wave of COVID-19, KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at a slow rate of only 1.8 percent in 2021, against our prior estimate of 2.6 percent. We are of the view that the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. Additi... Read more

9 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Households continue to face high uncertainty after the emergence of a new wave of COVID-19…shoring up confidence an urgent mission for the government

The COVID-19 situation has intensified with a considerable rise in the number of cases. The epicenter of the new wave is Bangkok, and it has spread nationwide at a rapid rate, once more plunging the economy and households’ confidence into a high degree of uncertainty. In the forthcoming period, KR-E... Read more

2 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Songkran 2021: Spending to remain subpar; Bangkokians gravitate towards celebrating at home (Current Issue No.3207)

KResearch projects that Bangkok residents’ spending during the 2021 Songkran festival will amount to THB 24 billion, a 4.0-percent contraction compared to Songkran in 2019 (excluding 2020, when the holiday was postponed). Tourism expenditure and travel costs for hometown trips may be particularly a... Read more

9 Mar 2021

Thai Economy

Government relief measures and positive expectations towards vaccines caused KR-ECI to recover at a faster rate compared to the post-lockdown period in 2020

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in February 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both rose from the previous month to 39.5 and 41.3, respectively. These figures indicate that Thai households’ concerns over their livelihood have declined from the previous month as the COVID-19 situ... Read more

15 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

Thai economy in 2021 to recover at 2.6%; downside risk lies in Thailand’s reopening for international tourists in the last quarter of the year (Business Brief No.3912)

The Thai economy in 2020 shrank less than expected due to the support of the government’s stimulus packages. In 2020, the Thai economy contracted by 6.1 percent, which is slightly less severe than KResearch’s projection of -6.7 percent. The smaller-than-expected contraction can be primarily attribut... Read more

9 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

New COVID-19 outbreak caused KR-ECI in January 2021 to drop from the previous month, though the Index was higher than during the first wave

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in January 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both fell from the previous month to 37.2 and 38.8, respectively. Almost every component of the Index dropped, particularly employment and income level post COVID-19 resurgence since mid-December 2020... Read more

2 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2021: Bangkokians’ spending to shrink 10.4%; COVID-19 scare prompts more consumers to shop online (Current Issue No.3185)

While the Thai government relaxed its COVID-19-related measures in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area on February 1, 2021, and has announced a special holiday in February ( a three-day weekend), the COVID-19 situation has yet to be brought fully under control. Consumers’ purchasing power has long been a... Read more

8 Jan 2021

Thai Economy

New Wave of COVID-19 Caused December KR-ECI to Decline for the First Time in 4 Months

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI fell to 40.2 and 40.7, respectively, in December 2020. All components of the KR-ECI also dropped. Households were more concerned about employment and income because of the resurgence of COVID-19 around mid-December 2020 (according to the survey conducted during... Read more

22 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month (Current Issue No.3173)

Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-ba... Read more

14 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

November KR-ECI Bounced Back to Near Pre-COVID-19 Levels, Supported by Government Consumption Stimulus Measures

The KR-ECI improved for the fifth consecutive month in November 2020, standing at 41.0, which was almost on par with the pre-COVID level of 40.6 in January 2020, because households, especially those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improvement was als... Read more

4 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

New Year, 2021: Bangkok Residents to Spend Almost the Same as in 2020 at THB30 Billion, Thanks to Consumption-Boosting Programs (Current Issue No.3164)

A recent poll conducted by KResearch shows that if there were no government consumption-boosting programs, most Bangkok residents would have spent only THB5,300/person on average during the upcoming 2021 New Year holiday season due to concern about the prolonged coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroa... Read more

16 Nov 2020

Thai Economy

Thai economy in 3Q20 recovered faster than expected; GDP for full-year 2020 to contract by not less than -7.0% (Business Brief No.3896)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted by less than the consensus forecast of -8.0 percent YoY. The satisfactory recovery of economic activity in 3Q20 can be attributed in part to pent-up demand after the relaxation of lockdowns across many countries, including Thailand. The less-t... Read more

11 Nov 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for Four Straight Months in October, Supported by Higher Income and Employment in the Agricultural Sector

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased for the fourth consecutive month in October 2020 because households, in particular those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improved sentiment seen in agricultural households was consistent with steady in... Read more

12 Oct 2020

Thai Economy

Year-End ‘‘Shop Dee Mee Kuen’’ Stimulus Measure to Bolster Restaurant and IT Product Sales (Current Issue No.3149)

KResearch views that the ‘‘Shop Dee Mee Kuen’’ (Shop and Payback) stimulus measure will likely benefit consumers earning at least THB500,00 per year or approximately THB42,000 per month. According to our behavioral survey, 70.0 percent of the total respondents (who are in the above consumer segment)... Read more

9 Oct 2020

Thai Economy

An Uptick seen in September KR-ECI, thanks to Government’s Economic Stimulus Measures, but Still Below Pre-Covid-19 Levels

The KR-ECI in September 2020 improved slightly over that reported for August 2020, implying that Thai households were more optimistic about their living conditions. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased in alignment with the gradually recovery seen in economic activities after the government li... Read more

30 Sep 2020

Thai Economy

Household Debt, 2Q20: Rising to 83.8% of GDP as Households Incurred More Debt amid Shrinking Economy (Business Brief No.3887)

According to the Bank of Thailand’s 2Q20 household debt report, Thailand’s outstanding household debt hit an 18-year high of 83.8 percent of GDP, rising from the 80.1 percent of GDP recorded during 1Q20. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, 2Q20 outstanding household debt increased THB92.2 billion, over t... Read more

28 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KResearch forecasts the Thai economy may see a U-shaped recovery with GDP shrinking by 10 percent

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The f... Read more

17 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

Thai economy expected to hit its trough in 2Q20 though 2H20 still fraught with risk; effectiveness of additional relief measures remains to be seen. (Business Brief No.3880)

The Thai economy in 2Q20 shrank by -12.2 percent YoY, a lesser decline than the market expectations of -13.0 to -17.0 percent YoY, due to a resurgence in government spending and investment in 2Q20. This surge occurred amid the issuance of several stimulus packages, in particular the relief measure ... Read more

10 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in July 2020 as Households Were More Concerned about Debt Despite Second Phase of Assistance Measures for Borrowers

The KR-ECI stood at 35.3 in July 2020, declining from 36.0 recorded in June 2020 because households were more concerned about debt, expenses and domestic prices of goods and services. Although the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) has introduced the second phase of assistance measures for borrowers, debt ser... Read more

10 Jul 2020

Thai Economy

Households have better outlook on their well-being over the next 3 months – first time in 7 months - reflecting the worst is now over

KR-ECI in June 2020 stood 36.0, maintaining a similar level to 36.1 in May 2020. Over the previous month, the government has exercised further relaxation of preventive measures on activities and businesses in the yellow band (Phase 3) and the red band (Phase 4), as well as the revocation of the decr... Read more

15 Jun 2020

Thai Economy

May KR-ECI Improves over that Reported in April First and Second Phases of Easing Restrictions Cause Households to be less Concerned about Income and Employment

The KR-ECI increased to 36.1 in May 2020, over 35.1 reported for April 2020 because households were less concerned about income and employment after the government gradually introduced the first and second phases of easing the country’s lockdown for businesses classified in the “White” and “Green” g... Read more

4 Jun 2020

Thai Economy

Unemployment rate in Bangkok rose to 9.6 percent in May 2020; government advised to create additional jobs (Business Brief No.3868)

KResearch conducted a survey on the well-being of Thai households in Greater Bangkok in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, in the period between May 21 and May 28, 2020. Following are some of the most noteworthy findings from the survey... Read more

27 May 2020

Thai Economy

2020 Back-to-School Season: Parents in Greater Bangkok to Spend Roughly THB28.26 Billion, Up Only 0.1% YoY (Current Issue No.3113)

During this time of every year, parents having school children have to set aside expenses for the new school year. These include tuition fees (for those sending their children to private and international schools), fees for education services and activities at schools, textbook, education equipment,... Read more

15 May 2020

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI Remains at Low Level as Debt Moratoriums Only Helps Ease Financial Burden Somewhat while Income and Savings Indicators Worsen

The KR-ECI came in at 35.1 in April, which was relatively low compared to the reading of 43.5 recorded during the same period last year. The April KR-ECI, however, improved over that seen in March due chiefly to the decreased debt burden of households because an increasing number of them had been g... Read more

17 Apr 2020

Thai Economy

March KR-ECI Fell for Third Consecutive Month Amid Sagging Household Savings and Income

The severe impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroad, especially in the US and Europe, plus social distancing measures to combat the viral disease, has dealt a big blow to the Thai economy and living conditions of Thai households at this time and over the next three months.... Read more

16 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell to its lowest, hitting a new low in February 2020 after COVID-19 outbreak intensified worldwide

The COVID-19 outbreak that intensified worldwide through February 2020 represents an important risk factor which is putting pressure on KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI, falling to its lowest level in 73 months. The households surveyed expressed increasing anxieties in all aspects related to the c... Read more

13 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

WHO upgrades COVID-19 to global pandemic; effects to be felt in Thai exports (Current Issue No.3091)

The outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread across the world to the extent that the World Health Organization (WHO) has raised its status to that of a pandemic, which has caused the global market to decline even further. This has generated even greater risk for Thai businesse... Read more

12 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

Deflation Foreseen in 2020 if Global Crude Oil Prices Continue to Plummet (Business Brief No.3854)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-OPEC allies (collectively known as OPEC+) failed to reach an agreement to trim their oil production by another 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on March 6, 2020 after non-OPEC refused to support OPEC’s deeper production cuts. ... Read more

6 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

2020 Thai Economy to Grow at the Slowest Pace in 11 Years due to COVID-19 Outbreak (Business Brief No.3853)

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is set to be severe and spread broadly around the globe after new infections outside of China, in particular South Korea, Italy and Iran have surged. So far, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 90,000 in over 70 countries and territo... Read more

17 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2020 GDP Hinges on Fiscal and Monetary Policies in order to Grow 2% (Business Brief No.3850)

The Thai economic performance, which has already been plagued by the ongoing trade war, anemic global economy and severe drought in the country, is being further undermined by the current COVID-19 outbreak. Given this, Thailand’s GDP grew at less than our prior estimates at 1.6 percent p.a. during 4... Read more

12 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell to a 6-Year Low in January 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak Steepens Risk to Cost of Living of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to the lowest level in 72 months. The households surveyed were worried about all aspects related to the cost of living now and over the next three months, ... Read more

7 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thais adjust their behavior to cope with novel coronavirus outbreak, weighing in medical treatment or vaccination in their decision to resume their normal lifestyle (Current Issue No.3082)

A recent survey conducted by KResearch shows that a majority of the respondents or 66 percent of them were worried about the novel coronavirus outbreak with the epicentre in China, which has spread to other countries, including Thailand. Thais have hence paid more attention to preventive measures an... Read more

31 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

MPC Meeting, February 5, 2020: Policy Rate Cut Likely Amid New Risks (Business Brief No.3848)

New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In ad... Read more

22 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Escalating PM2.5 problem prompts government to speed up measures to address the problem as people pay attention to health risks (Current Issue No.3076)

The airborne PM2.5 has returned to become a serious issue since the start of 2020. The thickening smog, exceeding the standard safe level, prompted the Cabinet to approve measures to prevent and address the PM2.5 crisis on January 21, 2020. KResearch assessed the economic impacts of PM 2.5 particles... Read more

15 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Households have worse outlook on their well-being for the next 3 months, reflecting concerns over the overall Thai economic sentiment

• KR-ECI in December 2019 stood 42.4, up from 42.0 in November 2019. Households became less worried about their income and employment, partly due to seasonal factors, namely, the annual pay raise of private companies. Additionally, prices of various agricultural produce increased, boosting the farm... Read more