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Economic Analysis

18 Oct 2021

International Economy

China’s economic growth falls to 4.9% YoY in 3Q21... energy crisis still poses a risk in the final quarter of 2021 (Business Brief No.3953)

China’s economy in 3Q21 faced a wide range of economic issues, whereas China’s stimulus packages remain rather limited. As a result, the country’s economic growth in 3Q21 slowed to 4.9 percent YoY, following year-on-year growth of 18.3 percent in 1Q21 and 7.9 percent in 2Q21. Details are as follows:... Read more

27 Sep 2021

International Economy

Thailand’s 2021 border trade to grow over 28 percent despite crisis... southern Chinese market ranked No.1 for the first time (Current Issue No.3271)

Over the first eight months of 2021, Thailand’s cross-border trade including transit trade saw a progressively brighter outlook, thanks to last year’s low base, higher purchasing power and energy prices. Export value during the period reached THB 682.184 billion, rising by 38 percent YoY,. This grow... Read more

22 Sep 2021

International Economy

Timing of Monetary Policy Normalization in ASEAN after Fed’s Signals of Looming QE Tapering (Current Issue No.3269)

Globally, the COVID-19 crisis has begun to ease, particularly in developed countries. As a result, their economies have substantially bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, their labor markets have almost returned to normalcy. Concurrently, signs of increased inflationary pressures have ... Read more

21 Sep 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 21-22, 2021: View on QE Tapering Program Likely Unchanged after It Has Already Been Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3948)

We, at KResearch, asssess that the Fed will continue to maintain its policy rate within a range of 0.0-0.25 percent, and may not announce its QE tapering program at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, slated for September 21-22, 2021. The US central bank may also keep its view... Read more

7 Sep 2021

International Economy

India’s economy and FDI soars ... Thai exports to India in 2021 set to surge 40% (Current Issue No.3265)

India is an interesting country. Aside from its economic growth that ranks among the highest in the world, it was the fifth-largest FDI recipient in 2020. KResearch perceives that future investments especially in e-commerce and ICT industries, and the manufacturing of technological devices like smar... Read more

13 Aug 2021

International Economy

Rising Debt Defaults Will Unlikely Hurt Chinese Economy (Business Brief No.3945)

Although China’s economic stimulus measures post 2008 global financial crisis were successful in reviving its economic growth to at least 6 percent p.a. on average during the past decade, such measures have created persistent corporate debt. China’s corporate debt surged from 94 percent of GDP in 20... Read more

26 Jul 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, July 27-28, 2021: Fed Funds Rate Likely Maintained at 0.0-0.25% despite Rising Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3941)

KResearch assesses that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, July 27-28, 2021, as the US labor market has yet to fully bounce back, and the number of unemployed remains substainally higher ... Read more

23 Jul 2021

International Economy

2020 Tokyo Olympic Games: Additional Benefits to Japan’s Economy May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3247)

The Tokyo Olympic Games, which had originally been scheduled for 2020, were postponed to 2021. Despite calls for it to be cancelled because of concerns that the COVID-19 there may get much worse, and the Olympics may bring more risks than economic benefits, the Japanese government finally confirmed ... Read more

20 Jul 2021

International Economy

U.S. and China’s legal tools... the prelude to global leadership competition in the new era (Current Issue No.3246)

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, its economy has continuously seen accelerated growth. China’s GDP reached USD 14.72 trillion in 2020, resulting in the narrowing of the economic gap between China and the United States. Meanwhile, China’s bargaining power has significan... Read more

16 Jul 2021

International Economy

China’s Target to Become a Carbon-free Country Set to Benefit Thai Exports that Meet Clean Energy Needs (Current Issue No.3245)

In the latest 14th plan for national and economic development, China has set a target to become a carbon -free nation by 2060 or over the next four decades. KResearch, however, is of the view that it will take China some time to achieve that target as its carbon emissions are growing unabated post-C... Read more

15 Jun 2021

International Economy

Fed likely to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% at FOMC on June 15-16; close attention should still be paid to economic and inflation forecasts (Business Brief No.3933)

KResearch has assessed that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during its upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, 2021, despite the rising inflation. The accelerating inflation can be primarily attributed to the resumption of economic activities af... Read more

27 May 2021

International Economy

Role of China in the CLMV Post-Pandemic World amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions (CLMV-EPI)

China’s economic role in the CLMV has substantially increased over the past years, particularly in trade via a number of strategies, aimed at building its economic influence and physical connectivity, such as transportation infrastructure projects and special economic zones under its Belt and Road I... Read more

13 May 2021

International Economy

US inflation surges above market forecast…Fed may need to implement QE tapering ahead of schedule; conditions rest on labor market (Business Brief No.3929)

US inflation surged above market forecasts in April 2021. Headline inflation rose 4.2 percent YoY, its highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile, core inflation reached 3.0 percent YoY. Such increases were driven by improving domestic demand following accelerated vaccination efforts and continuo... Read more

11 May 2021

International Economy

President Biden’s first 100 days: US economy set for strong recovery, though its implication for global economy remains shrouded in uncertainties (Current Issue No.3221)

Since Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration, a slew of stimulus measures have been expedited to rejuvenate the US economy, which has been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous stringent packages have been issued to curb the outbreaks, as well as accelerated COVID-19 vaccination efforts. Th... Read more

27 Apr 2021

International Economy

CLMV Countries May Enjoy Varying Benefits from Solid Global Economic Recovery (Current Issue No.3213)

It is projected that the global economy will record a solid recovery in post-pandemic 2021 as reflected by the International Monetary Fund’s decision to revise upward its 2021 growth forecast for the global economy to 6.0 percent from the prior estimate of 5.5 percent; the recovery will be led by la... Read more

26 Apr 2021

International Economy

Fed expected to maintain policy rate of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021 (Current Issue No.3927)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021. While the US economy has shown signs of recovery following expedited vaccination efforts, with business activities able to return to normal amid t... Read more

16 Apr 2021

International Economy

Chinese economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, its highest growth in 29 years, thanks to a low base in the previous year. Full-year 2021 still projected to grow by 8.0-8.5 percent. (Current Issue No.3922)

China’s economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, sharply higher than 4Q20 which saw 6.5 percent growth YoY, setting the highest quarterly year-on-year growth in 29 years since China began to publish such data in 1992. This surge was primarily attributed to a low base in 1Q20, during which China’s ec... Read more

12 Apr 2021

International Economy

Myanmar’s Economy Projected to Contract 8.5% in 2021, Causing Thailand’s Cross Border Exports to Shrink for Fifth Consecutive Year (Business Brief No.3920)

Amid positive signs seen in the global economic recovery due to concerted efforts of many countries in combating the COVID-19 pandemic via rolling out COVID-19 vaccines, which have allowed them to ease lockdown restrictions, Myanmar is experiencing political turmoil at home. The country’s image in t... Read more

31 Mar 2021

International Economy

Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew below expectations, owing to ebbing consumption and delayed FDI (Business Brief No.3919)

Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew 4.48 percent YoY, below expectations, owing to the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on consumption and the service sector in early 2021. As a consequence of the outbreaks, the Vietnamese government issued measures to temporarily shut down businesses including restaurants,... Read more

23 Mar 2021

International Economy

Turkey’s Lira Crisis: Waning investor confidence amid troubled economy and compromised independence of Turkish central bank (Business Brief No.3916)

Turkey’s lira encountered a massive selloff when the Asian stock market opened on Monday (March 22, 2021). The lira depreciated beyond 8.0000, hitting its lowest level in four months at 8.4706 lira per dollar, or an estimated drop of 15 percent from the closing price on Friday (March 19). This plung... Read more

22 Mar 2021

International Economy

China’s Economy May Grow More Slowly than Prior Estimate Due to Its Cautious Fiscal and Monetary Stances, Plus Sluggish Domestic Consumption (Business Brief No.3915)

In the government policy statement reported at the National People’s Congress held in early March 2021, China’s Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China would target an economic growth of more than 6 percent p.a. in 2021. KResearch is of the view that the setting of such a relatively low economic g... Read more

16 Mar 2021

International Economy

Fed to Maintain Policy Rate at 0.0-0.25%, Aimed at Supporting Economic Recovery Despite Increased Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3914)

KResearch assesses that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during the upcoming FOMC meeting that is slated for March 16-17, 2021. Although the US economy exhibits signs of recovery, it may take a while to fully bounce back, thus prompting the Fed to... Read more

3 Feb 2021

International Economy

Myanmar’ s Economy Projected to Contract 2.5-0.5% and Thailand-Myanmar Border Trade Set to Shrink for Fifth Consecutive year after Army Seize Power from the Government (Current Issue No.3186)

More dynamic relationships between Myanmar and Western powers were imperative in the development of Myanmar’s economy over the past decade. As a result, it has reported relatively impressive economic growth on the back of increased foreign investment, thus helping bolster its exports and allowing My... Read more

25 Jan 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, January 26-27, 2021: Fed expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged in anticipation of $1.9 trillion (Business Brief No.3909)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25 percent, without announcing any additional monetary easing tools, at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on January 26-27, 2021. While the Fed is expected to ... Read more

18 Jan 2021

International Economy

2020 China’s GDP grew beyond projection at 2.3%; 2021 growth forecast at 8.0-8.5% with emphasis on qualitative growth and circular economy (Business Brief No.3907)

The economy of China in 4Q20 grew by 6.5 percent YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded the projection, at 2.3 percent YoY. The figures reflect China’s success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective manne... Read more

28 Dec 2020

International Economy

Brexit deal: Historic agreement that eases economic tensions amid COVID-19 pandemic (Current Issue No.3176)

Four years have passed since the United Kingdom held a referendum in which the majority voted to withdraw from the European Union (EU), on June 23, 2016. The UK and the EU have finally concluded their negotiations over the Brexit deal prior to the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020. G... Read more

22 Dec 2020

International Economy

Vietnam Will Likely be Able to Maintain Competitiveness Despite Strengthening Dong (Current Issue No.3172)

In the latest currency manipulation report published by the US Department of the Treasury in December 2020, Vietnam was designated as a currency manipulator because it fulfilled three benchmarks set by the US. These include an intervention in the currency-exchange market as evidenced by Vietnam’s ne... Read more

9 Dec 2020

International Economy

Baht set to strengthen even as Fed stalls QE at FOMC on Dec.15-16, 2020 (Business Brief No.3899)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25%, and it is unlikely that the Fed will announce any additional tools for quantitative easing (QE) at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on December 15-16, 2020. ... Read more

19 Nov 2020

International Economy

RCEP Set to be Enforced, but Close Attention Must be Paid to the US Stance, which Could Affect Thailand Ahead (Current Issue No.3162)

Presently, Thailand is already a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA). This is most welcome news because the RCEP will likely help enhance Thailand’s competitiveness over the short term, although the country’s long-... Read more

13 Nov 2020

International Economy

All eyes on RCEP: the world’s largest free trade framework and Thailand’s most comprehensive FTA (Current Issue No.3159)

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, comprises 15 member states, namely the 10 ASEAN countries and their Plus 5 which consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. RCEP member states were finally able to wrap up their longstanding negotiations, which had been... Read more

4 Nov 2020

International Economy

2020 US election results set to benefit Thai products (Current Issue No.3158)

Preliminarily, products and businesses with ties to the US market will likely benefit from this historic election after braving the COVID-19 crisis this year, setting them on the path towards economic recovery in 2021. Indeed, the degree of recovery depends on the policies under the new president wh... Read more

3 Nov 2020

International Economy

US Presidential Election Results: US Economy Set to Recover Faster and US Dollar May Weaken if Biden Wins as Expected (Business Brief No.3894)

Various polls and projections all show that Joe Biden, the democratic presidential candidate, will win the 2020 US presidential election on November 3, 2020. Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ domination in both the House of Representatives and Senate would be a boon for the overall US economy as th... Read more

30 Oct 2020

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, November 4-5, 2020: Policy Rate Likely to Remain at 0.0-0.25%, But US Presidential Election Results May Affect Fed’s Future Policy Stance (Business Brief No.3893)

We at KResearch assess that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent during its FOMC meeting slated for November 4-5, 2020 because the US economy has begun to rebound, thus lessening its pressure to cut the Fed Funds rate further. In addition, the Fed ... Read more

22 Oct 2020

International Economy

2020 US Presidential Election: Uncertainties Likely to Persist Until Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021 (Current Issue No.3150)

Special attention is being paid to the 2020 US presidential election, in particular visions and policy guidelines of presidential candidates to revive the US economy as the country is battling the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. KResearch is of the view that if Joe Biden, who is leading in the US e... Read more

19 Oct 2020

International Economy

China’s 3Q20 GDP grew 4.9% YoY, with 2020 growth projected at 1.7% amid numerous risks (Business Brief No.3891)

The Chinese economy in 3Q20 grew 4.9 percent YoY, continuing the positive trend from 2Q20, which saw 3.2 percent growth YoY. This expansion can be attributed to the gradual recovery experienced by the private sector, particularly domestic tourism activities that have only recently regained their vi... Read more

23 Sep 2020

International Economy

All eyes are on fluctuations in commodity prices...in light of China’s stockpiling policy (Current Issue No.3140)

In September 2020, China sent a positive signal in regard to its economic development plan that laid out the country’s strategies for the next five years, from 2021 through 2025. Of particular interest is China’s return to stockpiling commodities with an emphasis on food security. Such actions will ... Read more

14 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed set to keep interest rates in a range of 0-0.25% at FOMC meeting Sep. 15-16, having passed a resolution to adjust long-term inflation in the previous month (Business Brief No.3884)

KResearch has assessed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to keep interest rates in a range of 0.0-0.25 percent at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which will be held on September 15-16, as the Fed is thought to have already used all the tools necessary to sustain the ... Read more

10 Sep 2020

International Economy

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger no-deal Brexit by the end of 2020 (Current Issue No.3133)

Ever since the results of the EU Referendum on June 23, 2016, led to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, the event that all parties concerned have hoped for is a negotiation to finalize the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU going forward. However, after th... Read more

2 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed’s flexible inflation policy reinvigorates the US capital market but may produce volatility for financial markets in the future once inflation returns (Business Brief No.3882)

Mr. Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chairman, announced a major monetary policy shift at the latest Jackson Hole conference (August 27, 2020). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reached a unanimous decision in approving longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy adjustment. The shift ... Read more

24 Jul 2020

International Economy

Fed expected to maintain interest rate at 0.0-0.25% at meeting on Jul. 28-29 – present situation still does not warrant issuance of additional policy measures (Business Brief No.3878)

KResearch projects that the Fed will continue to maintain the interest rate at 0.0-0.25 percent at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 28-29, 2020. The measures that have already been taken should be sufficient to sustain the US economy, which is weakening and will likely take a long time t... Read more

17 Jul 2020

International Economy

US eliminates Hong Kong’s special status, rekindling the flames of the US-China trade war prior to 2020 US election (Current Issue No.3124)

Over the course of the past two years that have been dominated by the US-China trade war, the US has been unable to reduce its trade deficit with China to the targeted level. Shifting the focus to Thailand, Thai export businesses incurred a net loss of USD 1.1 billion in related products. ... Read more

17 Jul 2020

International Economy

Effective Control of COVID-19 Pandemic Helps Support 2Q20 Chinese Economy to Grow Faster than Expected at 3.2% YoY (Business Brief No.3875)

The Chinese economy reverted to growth of 3.2 percent YoY in 2Q20, versus the 6.8 percent YoY contraction reported for 1Q20, thanks to the government’s effective measures in combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, thus allowing economic activity in the country to return to normalcy. Its indus... Read more

9 Jun 2020

International Economy

Fed to Keep Policy Rate Steady at 0.0-0.25% during June 9-10 Meeting Amid Heightened Economic Risk (Business Brief No.3870)

The US economy continues to experience increased risk despite recovering signs seen after Washington began easing lockdown measures in May 2020. The US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 43.1 in May, rising over the 41.5 reported for April while unemployment slipped to 13.3 percent in May, ... Read more

7 May 2020

International Economy

Opportunities and Challenges of ASEAN Amid Transformation of Supply Chains Post COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3108)

A majority of ASEAN member states overall may experience fragile supply chains as a result of their dependency on imports of intermediate products from sources that are highly competitive in terms of costs, namely China, plus technologies from countries that own advanced technologies, such as South ... Read more

27 Apr 2020

International Economy

Fed expected to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% in the meeting of 28-29 April; negative rates seen as unnecessary for now (Business Brief No.3863)

The US economy is experiencing markedly elevated risk from the spread of COVID-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the US economy in 2020 may contract by 5.9 percent, a decline comparable in severity to that of the Great Depression in 1930. The US economy severely contracted afte... Read more

22 Apr 2020

International Economy

CLMV’s economic growth crashes to two-decade low due to COVID-19; worst effects among countries more dependent on foreign income (Current Issue No.3100)

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a negative impact on CLMV economies through their dependency on foreign-sourced revenue from tourism and exports. Countries which are heavily dependent on foreign revenue are facing more negative effects during this crisis.... Read more

17 Apr 2020

International Economy

Chinese economy in 1Q20 contracted for the first time since record-keeping began; 1-3% growth expected through 2020 (Business Brief No.3861)

The Chinese economy contracted by 6.8 percent (YoY) in 1Q20, marking the first time that the Chinese economy has experienced a contraction since statistical reports began in 1992. The main reason for this phenomenon is the stringent COVID-19 disease control and prevention measures issued by the Chin... Read more

3 Apr 2020

International Economy

Governments worldwide boost economies through biggest stimulus packages on record in wake of COVID-19 Pandemic (Business Brief No.3854)

The novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow in severity, with most parts of the world seeing no signs of easing or control of viral spread in the near future. The pandemic has plunged the world economy into a state of higher negative risk, as it enters a recession this year. Governm... Read more

4 Mar 2020

International Economy

Fed Makes Emergency Rate Cut by 0.50% to 1.00-1.25%...More Reductions Likely to Combat COVID-19 Fallout (Business Brief No.3852)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed its policy rate by 0.50 percent to 1.00-1.25 percent at an emergency meeting, March 3, 2020. The move suggests that the Fed has a more “negative” view towards the impact of the COVID-19 on household and business spending, plus the US economy overall, prompting it to... Read more

19 Feb 2020

International Economy

Competitiveness of Thai products in CLMV Begins to Decline…Product and Service Improvements Needed (KR CLMV Economic Presence Index Analysis)

The competiveness of Thai exports to CLMV has trended lower compared to dynamic exports of other Southeast Asian countries. Export share of other Southeast Asian countries in CLMV surged to over 50 percent in 2019, increasing from just 17 percent reported for 2018 or within only three years. The de... Read more

30 Jan 2020

International Economy

Novel coronavirus outbreak… causes at least 300 billion Yuan economic impact on 2020 Chinese economy in 1 month (Business Brief No.3847)

The transmission of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) continues to escalate, prompting the Chinese authorities to take extreme measures to prevent the virus from spreading. For example, they locked down 18 cities in Hubei province by closing off access to the cities and transportation in the provi... Read more

27 Jan 2020

International Economy

Fed May Keep Policy Rate Unchanged in 1Q20, But Additional Rat Cuts Likely Prior to Presidential Election in November 2020 (Business Brief No.3846)

We at KResearch view that improving signs seen in the US economy overall will continue to provide the Fed room to keep its policy rate steady at least until 1Q20. However, the US manufacturing sector has not substantially recovery despite the signing of the first phase of a broader trade pact betwee... Read more

17 Jan 2020

International Economy

China's economic growth in 2019 records a 29-year low… weak momentum to continue in 2020 (Business Brief No.3844)

China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration... Read more

16 Jan 2020

International Economy

Eyeing US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal…Terms of Trade Pact Will Likely Be Dictated by US Politics (Current Issue No.3072)

The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate o... Read more