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Economic Analysis

15 May 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew 2.7% YoY in 1Q23 as expected (Business Brief No.4002)

Tourism will continue to be a key economic driver ahead despite the risk of global economic slowdown and uncertainty towards the formation of a new Thai government. KResearch maintains its growth forecast for the Thai economy in 2023 at 3.7%. ... Read more

15 May 2023

Thai Economy

Short- to medium-term economic challenges await the new government (Business Brief No.4003)

Implementation of new economic policies promoted in election campaigns would have positive short-term impact on GDP growth, while leading to the challenge of an increased fiscal burden.... Read more

11 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Fiscal measure via funds transfer (Business Brief No.3998)

Fiscal measure via funds transfer... Read more

7 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s looming super-aged society presents a formidable challenge for business sector and new government (Current Issue No.3398)

Thailand’s looming super-aged society presents a formidable challenge for business sector and new government... Read more

30 Mar 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3996)

Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown... Read more

20 Mar 2023

International Economy

The FOMC meeting on March 21-22, 2023…The Fed is set to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent The Fed is also expected to signal the recent US bank collapses will not cause broader systemic woes (Business Brief No.3994)

The FOMC meeting on March 21-22, 2023…The Fed is set to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent The Fed is also expected to signal the recent US bank collapses will not cause broader systemic woes... Read more

13 Mar 2023

International Economy

The collapse of banks in the US has limited impact on Thailand. However, further developments merit close watch (Current Issue No.3385)

The collapse of banks in the US has limited impact on Thailand. However, further developments merit close watch... Read more

2 Mar 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January 2023, by 4.5 percent YoY, due to ongoing pressure from the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3993)

Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January 2023, by 4.5 percent YoY, due to ongoing pressure from the global economic slowdown ... Read more

20 Feb 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew less than expected in 4Q22. KResearch, however, maintains our 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.7% (Business Brief No.3992)

Thai economy grew less than expected in 4Q22. KResearch, however, maintains our 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.7%, supported chiefly by tourism even as Thai exports will likely be pressured by the slowing global economy... Read more

13 Feb 2023

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in January 2023 improved, driven by the Thai economic recovery, with Thai households’ improved perception towards income and employment

KR-ECI in January 2023 improved, driven by the Thai economic recovery, with Thai households’ improved perception towards income and employment. However, households minimized spending, such as refraining from buying luxury items and reducing energy consumption, amid high cost of living... Read more

27 Jan 2023

International Economy

First FOMC meeting of 2023, January 31 – February 1. Fed may slow its policy rate hike by 0.25% amid easing inflation. However, future US policy rate will chiefly hinge on inflation and other economic data (Business Brief No.3991)

First FOMC meeting of 2023, January 31 – February 1. Fed may slow its policy rate hike by 0.25% amid easing inflation. However, future US policy rate will chiefly hinge on inflation and other economic data ... Read more

25 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues (Business Brief No.3990)

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues... Read more

20 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Challenges related to ESG that businesses should watch out for in 2023 (Current Issue No.3382)

In 2023, countries around the world are grappling with economic uncertainty and stagnation, which may in turn affect sustainability or ESG operations of the business sector. ... Read more

17 Jan 2023

International Economy

China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)

China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)... Read more

13 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2023 GDP growth projected at 3.7% due to China’s reopening (Business Brief No.3986)

Around 25.5 million foreign tourists set to visit Thailand and Thai exports projected to shrink only 0.5% in 2023, thanks to China’s early reopening while global inflation may decline slower than expected ... Read more

12 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2023: Bangkokians’ spending projected to grow for the first time in three years, amid cautious spending (Current Issue No.3381)

Based on its survey findings, KResearch views that Chinese New Year in 2023 will likely see brighter prospects compared to last year, driven by the easing of the COVID-19 situation and the “Shop Dee Mee Khuen” (shop and payback) scheme. However, consumers’ spending behavior must be adjusted to accom... Read more

29 Dec 2022

International Economy

Second year of China-Lao PDR high-speed railway…to benefit from China’s relaxation of zero-Covid measures

While the China-Lao PDR high-speed railway is entering its second year of operation, transport of goods between southern China and ASEAN is expected to become more active. China’s potential reopening following positive signals on gradual relaxation of its zero-COVID measures will generate greater be... Read more

27 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Thai exports projected to shrink at 1.5% in 2023 amid weak demand in trade partners and declining global commodity prices (Business Brief No.3985)

Thailand’s export growth has slowed down substantially during 2H22 due to a number of factors. These include the high base of 2H21 and a noticeable weakness in demand seen in various export markets. As a result, Thai shipments contracted for the second consecutive month in November 2022 by 6.0 perce... Read more

23 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

The US preliminarily determines that Thai solar cells are circumventing AD/CVD measures…Short-term, limited impact on Thai exports amid looming competition with South Korea (Current Issue No.3376)

The US Department of Commerce announced the results of its preliminary investigation, finding that some Chinese manufacturers had established production bases in four ASEAN countries, including Thailand, in order to circumvent US anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) measures. If fin... Read more

22 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents resume New Year 2023 celebrations, with spending projected to reach THB30.9 billion (Current Issue No.3375)

Due to the fragile recovery seen in income and the high cost of living, consumers continue to be cautious about their spending. However, most of them have resumed outdoor activities, including travelling as COVID-19 has begun to ease. They have also organized celebrations during various festivities ... Read more

21 Dec 2022

International Economy

EU plans to implement CBAM October 1, 2023 (Business Brief No.3983)

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reached an agreement to set up the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective October 1, 2023... Read more

19 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)... Read more

9 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI hit 14-month high in November 2022, but remained below pre-COVID-19 levels. Most households have year-end gathering plans in place

KR-ECI hit 14-month high in November 2022, but remained below pre-COVID-19 levels. Most households have year-end gathering plans in place ... Read more

1 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

NCB’s data show that micro and super micro businesses remain fragile despite economic recovery (Current Issue No.3367)

NCB’s data show that micro and super micro businesses remain fragile despite economic recovery... Read more

29 Nov 2022

International Economy

Post-APEC summit…France actively strengthens relations with Thailand and ASEAN (Current Issue No.3366)

Regarding the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by Thailand, the French leader was officially invited as a special guest of the Thai government to attend the forum. During his visit to Thailand, marking the first such visit in 16 years, French President Emmanuel Macron and ... Read more

17 Nov 2022

International Economy

APEC CEO Summit 2022 showcases global visions of business leaders of APEC member economies (Current Issue No.3362)

During APEC 2022, hosted by Thailand, close attention must be paid to the APEC CEO Summit 2022 because it provides leading business leaders of APEC member economies an opportunity to showcase their visions. The program of the APEC CEO Summit focuses on the openness to trade and investment, as well a... Read more

11 Nov 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI remained static in October. Households were still concerned about expenses, income and, employment, plus future savings due to the impact of flooding in many provinces

KR-ECI remained static in October. Households were still concerned about expenses, income and, employment, plus future savings due to the impact of flooding in many provinces ... Read more

10 Nov 2022

International Economy

US 2022 midterm election results set to affect passage of bills in Congress, but unlikely to alter 2023 US economic outlook (Current Issue No.3357)

Preliminary voting results of the US midterm elections, November 8, 2022, show that Republicans have inched closer to a House majority, while control of the Senate hinges on a few tight races. Regardless of whether Democrats can still hold a majority in the Senate, or not when the official voting re... Read more

1 Nov 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, November 1-2, 2022 Fed Funds rate likely be raised by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressure and projected slowdown in the US economy (Business Brief No.3981)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider raising its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, November 1-2, 2022, marking a 0.75 percent policy rate hike for the fourth consecutive meeting. ... Read more

26 Oct 2022

International Economy

Chinese economy grew 3.9% in 3Q22 and 3.0% during 9M22 (Business Brief No.3890)

The Chinese economy grew better-than-expected at 3.9 percent YoY in 3Q22, bettering the 0.4 percent growth reported for 2Q22. During 9M22, the Chinese economy expanded 3.0 percent, buoyed by the relaxation of lockdown measures in major cities such as Shanghai, allowing its manufacturing sector to re... Read more

26 Oct 2022

Thai Economy

Public construction investment to grow in 2022-2023 bolstered by megaprojects, but close attention must be paid to several risk factors (Current Issue No.3353)

Public construction investment to grow in 2022-2023 bolstered by megaprojects, but close attention must be paid to several risk factors ... Read more

11 Oct 2022

Thai Economy

September KR-ECI remained static from the previous month. Flooding presents risk to household income and spending

September KR-ECI remained static from the previous month. Flooding presents risk to household income and spending ... Read more

28 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch maintains GDP growth projection for 2022 at 2.9 percent and a projected range of 3.2-4.2 percent for 2023; hopes pinned on tourism to mitigate impacts of economic recession among Thailand’s partners (Press Conference 28 September 2022)

KResearch maintains GDP growth projection for 2022 at 2.9 percent and a projected range of 3.2-4.2 percent for 2023; hopes pinned on tourism to mitigate impacts of economic recession among Thailand’s partners ... Read more

21 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to amount to THB 3.2 billion, with reduced number of days of participation and meals consumed, amid rising prices of vegetarian food (Current Issue No.3346)

Due to rising vegetarian food prices in line with higher production costs, and floods damaging agricultural crops that are the main ingredients of vegetarian food, especially vegetables and tofu which typically see price hikes during the Kin Jae festival, the number of Bangkok residents participatin... Read more

20 Sep 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, September 20-21, 2022 Fed is set to raise its policy rate by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressures while close attention must be paid to Fed’s various projections (Business Brief No.3978)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for September 20-21, 2022 as the US headline inflation rate for August was still higher than what was expected by the markets although it fel... Read more

19 Sep 2022

International Economy

China’s worst drought in nine years expected to support Thai jasmine rice exports to China for September-December 2022; much will depend on extent of flooding in Thailand (Current Issue No.3345)

China has been severely affected by a heat wave and drought. Although the situation has eased in some areas, the heat wave crisis may persist and affect crops that are to be harvested during the remainder of this year. This would boost imports into China, especially rice, wheat and maize.... Read more

7 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI recovered for two straight months in August 2022, supported by higher employment and the fact that prices of several products began to increase at a slower rate from the previous month

KR-ECI recovered for two straight months in August 2022, supported by higher employment and the fact that prices of several products began to increase at a slower rate from the previous month... Read more

31 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

The first minimum wage hike in two years, under different economic conditions… cost pass-through by business operators to remain limited in 2022 (Current Issue No.3342)

The tripartite national wage committee has resolved to raise the minimum wage rates for the year 2022, which will be proposed for the Cabinet’s approval to take effect on October 1, 2022. There are nine new minimum wage levels. The lowest rate is THB 328, and the highest is THB 354 (the current rate... Read more

10 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

Households begin adjusting their spending behavior as most of them view that product prices will remain high for at least another year. The KR-ECI for July 2022 improved from its lowest-ever level following a slight drop in oil prices over the past month.

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI in July 2022 improved to 32.5 and 34.0, from their lowest-ever levels at 30.8 and 32.9 reported for June 2022, due to energy prices that were slightly lower than June, albeit remaining high. Additionally, further relaxation of Thailand’s entry restrictions has ... Read more

25 Jul 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, July 26-27, 2022 Another 0.75% rate hike likely amid steady increases in inflation while the US economy shows signs of cooling down (Business Brief No.3976)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for July 26-27, 2022. The latest inflation figure for June hit a record four-decade high of 9.1 percent YoY, prompting the Fed to pl... Read more

16 Jul 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. (Current Issue No.3975)

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. In the second half of 2022, China’s economy will likely improve but continue to face risks from its zero-COVID policy and ongoing property sector slowdown. For full-year 2022, its economic growth is projected to be in a range o... Read more

7 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

The KR-ECI fell to its lowest-ever level. Although the COVID-19 transition from pandemic to endemic will partly support employment, rising product prices, as reflected by the inflation rate which hit a 14-year high, will continue to pressure the KR-ECI.

The KR-ECI fell to its lowest-ever level. Although the COVID-19 transition from pandemic to endemic will partly support employment, rising product prices, as reflected by the inflation rate which hit a 14-year high, will continue to pressure the KR-ECI. ... Read more

1 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

25th Anniversary of the “Tom Yun Kung” crisis: Current economic situation may not repeat the past (Current Issue No.3330)

July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact ... Read more

28 Jun 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch upgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent while Thailand is exposed to risk of tightening food supply (Press Conference 28 June 2022)

KResearch upgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent while Thailand is exposed to risk of tightening food supply... Read more

24 Jun 2022

International Economy

Yen weakens to a two-decade low...Thai exports to Japan decline 0.6 percent (Current Issue No.3327)

Japan's currency has been weakening and hit a 24-year low at Yen 136.24 per USD (as of June 22, 2022), declining 17.1 percent compared to early 2022. Compared to other major currencies, the Yen saw the steepest depreciation, and has signaled a continued drop throughout the rest of the year. The glob... Read more

13 Jun 2022

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by another 0.50% and continue to send aggressive signals after inflation hit a new four-decade high (Business Brief No.3973)

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, June 14-15, 2022, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent as earlier signaled. Moreover, it will continue to place emphasis on the inflation risk as hovering inflation will unlikely ease ... Read more

9 Jun 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell for the third consecutive month in May as product prices continued to increase while several government relief measures gradually expired

KR-ECI fell for the third consecutive month in May as product prices continued to increase while several government relief measures gradually expired ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

New school year 2022: Education expenses set to rise 2.0 percent, with estimated value of THB 26.90 billion (Current Issue No.3324)

As the COVID-19 situation eases, students will be returning to study onsite per normal circumstances, with schools set to reopen on May 17. Generally, at this time of year, parents must assume the burden of their children’s education expenses. While the prices of energy and various goods have risen ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI has remained low for two straight months amid elevated goods prices. Economic and living conditions of households are still fragile after the government scrapped subsidies for several necessities such as fuels and cooking gas

April KR-ECI has remained low for two straight months amid elevated goods prices. Economic and living conditions of households are still fragile after the government scrapped subsidies for several necessities such as fuels and cooking gas ... Read more

30 Apr 2022

International Economy

Fed to raise policy rate by another 0.50% to stem inflation…A move that will drive up the US dollar ahead (Business Brief No.3970)

As previously signaled, it is expected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, May 3-4, 2022, with the aim of combating elevated inflation. The Fed may continue to place emphasis on maintaining price sta... Read more

18 Apr 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew 4.8% YoY in 1Q22 (Business Brief No.3969)

China’s economy grew 4.8 percent YoY and 1.3 percent QoQ in the first quarter of 2022 amid pressing issues. Details concerning China’s economic growth in 1Q22 are as follows... Read more

11 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declined in March as households were still concerned about rising product costs

KR-ECI declined in March as households were still concerned about rising product costs... Read more

8 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

Songkran 2022: Price promotion campaigns and changes in behavior limits growth of tourism spending (Current Issue No.3321)

Every year, the Songkran festival is a time when Thais return to their home provinces to celebrate the Thai New Year with their families, while others go on day trips or overnight stays.... Read more

30 Mar 2022

Thai Economy

High cost of living prompts Bangkok residents to cut spending during Songkran Festival in 2022 (Current Issue No.3317)

KResearch is of the view that spending by Bangkok residents during the upcoming Songkran Festival 2022 will reach THB23.4 billion, a decline of 2.5 percent YoY, as they intend to spend less on all activities due to the rising cost of living, driven by inflation. Most of the Bangkok city dwellers wil... Read more

25 Mar 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch downgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.5 percent due to impacts from Russia-Ukraine crisis that has sent oil and food prices soaring (Press Conference 25 March 2022)

KResearch downgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.5 percent due to impacts from Russia-Ukraine crisis that has sent oil and food prices soaring ... Read more

10 Feb 2022

Thai Economy

Prices of goods continue to rise, while incomes decline – putting pressure on KR-ECI, which fell to a historic low in January 2022

Prices of goods continue to rise, while incomes decline – putting pressure on KR-ECI, which fell to a historic low in January 2022... Read more

3 Feb 2022

International Economy

Relations with Saudi Arabia restored... FTA in the works to keep Thailand ahead of its competitors (Current Issue No.3305)

The restoration of diplomatic relations between Thailand and Saudi Arabia for the first time in 30 years makes it likely that economic ties between the two countries will be strengthened. In 2021, bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at only USD 7.301 billion – primarily due to Thail... Read more

24 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2022: Spending expected to stall as Bangkokians focus on budget control amid surging product prices (Current Issue No.3303)

KResearch views that the gradual rise in product prices and living costs will continue to pressure Bangkokians’ spending during the Chinese New Year Festival in 2022. While the Omicron outbreak may have generated concern among consumers, some Bangkok residents of Chinese descent still plan to celebr... Read more

21 Jan 2022

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, Jan. 25-26: No New Signals to be Given, Except for Rate Hike in March as Already Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3964)

Amid the persistent acceleration of inflationary pressure and the fact that the US is on the cusp of full employment, it is expected that the Fed will begin its interest rate hike in March 2022 as signaled by many Fed officials. However, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages in the US will un... Read more

18 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents adjust spending behavior to cope with rising cost of living (Current Issue No.3302)

The rise in living costs, whether it is in food prices, electricity bills or commuting expenses, has affected and generated much anxiety among Bangkok residents, particularly low-income earners who make less than THB15,000 a month, the worst-affected income group in the capital. In general, people w... Read more

17 Jan 2022

International Economy

China’s 4Q21 Economy Grew at Slowest Rate of 4.0% YoY in 2021, but 2022 GPD Growth Projected at 5.0% (Business Brief No.3963)

China’s 4Q21 Economy Grew at Slowest Rate of 4.0% YoY in 2021, but 2022 GPD Growth Projected at 5.0%... Read more

13 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Government’s Additional Borrowing during 2022-2023 May Affect Liquidity, but Still Manageable (Business Brief No.3962)

It is likely that the budget deficit during 2022-2023 will continue to rise higher than pre-pandemic levels, and this may in turn affect the government’s borrowing plans in 2022. KResearch expects that outstanding public debt (based on the calendar year) may approach THB9.90 trillion in 2022, an inc... Read more

12 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declines for the third consecutive month in December 2021 due to concerns over rising cost of living

For December 2021, KR-ECI continues to reflect concerns over the rising cost of living, particularly prices of food and beverages. During the recent New Year holiday, households were still worried about increasing expenses. As a result, December’s KR-ECI dropped to 33.9 percent from 34.7 percent in ... Read more

31 Dec 2021

International Economy

Launch of RCEP on January 1, 2022 Set to Reinvigorate Regional Trade and Investment, but Thailand May Face Increased Competition in Attracting Investment (Current Issue No.3298)

ความตกลงหุ้นส่วนทางเศรษฐกิจระดับภูมิภาค (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: RCEP) นับเป็นการเปิดเสรีการค้ากับกลุ่มการค้าที่มีขนาดใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก โดยจะมีผลบังคับใช้ในวันที่ 1 มกราคม 2565 นี้ หลังเจรจามายาวนานถึงเกือบทศวรรษ ซึ่งการเปิดเสรีการค้ากับ 15 ชาติสมาชิกจะช่วยให้การค้าระหว่างชาติสมาช... Read more

21 Dec 2021

Thai Economy

MPC meeting on December 22, 2021: Policy rate likely to be maintained at 0.5% amid increased uncertainty due to Omicron outbreak (Business Brief No.3960)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 22, 2021, amid heightened risk due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. As a result, the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand may be lower than ... Read more

16 Dec 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 14-15, 2021: Fed Announced the Acceleration of QE Tapering and Signaled Three Rate Hikes in 2022 (Business Brief No.3959)

At the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it will double the rate at which it reduces monthy asset purchases (QE tapering program), meaning that the process will end by March 2022. The Fed also signaled three rate hikes next year to cope ... Read more

14 Dec 2021

International Economy

Fed may signal faster monetary policy tightening at the FOMC meeting on Dec. 14-15, 2021 (Business Brief No.3958)

Amid rising inflationary pressures, the Fed could increase the pace of its QE tapering and raise the policy rate much sooner than previously expected. The United States’ inflation rate continues to surge, with the headline inflation rate, gauged by the consumer price index soaring to a new high in a... Read more

13 Dec 2021

Thai Economy

New Year 2022: More Bangkok residents to celebrate the festive season outside their homes, with spending expected to reach THB 30.5 billion (Current Issue No.3291)

KResearch perceives that New Year 2022 will likely have a more festive atmosphere than the year before, thanks to improvements in the COVID-19 situation, better access to vaccines, the government’s measures to boost purchasing power and an expedited campaign to support businesses during the holiday ... Read more

2 Dec 2021

International Economy

EU takes the lead in ESG trend, poised to collect carbon border tax on imports... Thailand to feel impact over the next 2-3 years (Current Issue No.3288)

กระแส ESG แรงกดดันทางการค้าระลอกใหม่ท้าทายความสามารถในการแข่งขันของสินค้าไทย โดยที่ผ่านมา EU นำมาตรการด้านสิ่งแวดล้อมออกมาใช้ก่อนประเทศอื่นๆ ไม่ว่าจะเป็นการเก็บภาษีคาร์บอนกับธุรกิจในประเทศ การลดการใช้งานพลาสติก ล่าสุดกำลังจะเก็บภาษีคาร์บอนกับสินค้านำเข้าจากต่างประเทศในอีก 1 ปีข้างหน้า (ปี 2566) นอกจ... Read more

9 Nov 2021

Thai Economy

Concerns over high cost of living caused October’s KR-ECI to decline Ongoing surge in oil prices and flood damage have caused prices of goods to rise in the short term

In October 2021, Thai households harbored increased concerns towards the economy and their living conditions, due to continuously rising energy prices and impact of recent floods, which have driven up vegetable prices. KR-ECI in October 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI dropped to 34.9 and 36.7, ... Read more

1 Nov 2021

International Economy

CPTPP vs RCEP China’s interest in CPTPP membership (Current Issue No.3282)

The Cabinet Meeting on October 12, 2021, discussed the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership” (CPTPP). The agreement garnered renewed attention in September after China expressed interest in becoming a member. Taiwan followed suit in submitting its application, while... Read more

30 Oct 2021

International Economy

Fed Expected to Announce its QE Tapering Program at the Upcoming FOMC Meeting, November 2-3, 2021 (Business Brief No.3956)

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOM0C) meeting, November 2-3, 2021, is seen as an important policy gathering because the Fed is expected to officially announce its QE tapering program after sending signals that it would begin to do so by the end of 2021 and complete the process by mid-20... Read more

18 Oct 2021

International Economy

China’s economic growth falls to 4.9% YoY in 3Q21... energy crisis still poses a risk in the final quarter of 2021 (Business Brief No.3953)

China’s economy in 3Q21 faced a wide range of economic issues, whereas China’s stimulus packages remain rather limited. As a result, the country’s economic growth in 3Q21 slowed to 4.9 percent YoY, following year-on-year growth of 18.3 percent in 1Q21 and 7.9 percent in 2Q21. Details are as follows:... Read more

30 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to contract 8.2% in 2021, amid unfavorable circumstances and cautious spending (Current Issue No.3273)

While the COVID-19 situation and access to vaccines have started to improve, newly urgent matters like flooding and rising energy prices have rattled consumer confidence, sapping purchasing power and perhaps dissuading consumers from spending during the upcoming Kin Jae festival from October 6 – 14,... Read more

27 Sep 2021

International Economy

Thailand’s 2021 border trade to grow over 28 percent despite crisis... southern Chinese market ranked No.1 for the first time (Current Issue No.3271)

Over the first eight months of 2021, Thailand’s cross-border trade including transit trade saw a progressively brighter outlook, thanks to last year’s low base, higher purchasing power and energy prices. Export value during the period reached THB 682.184 billion, rising by 38 percent YoY,. This grow... Read more

22 Sep 2021

International Economy

Timing of Monetary Policy Normalization in ASEAN after Fed’s Signals of Looming QE Tapering (Current Issue No.3269)

Globally, the COVID-19 crisis has begun to ease, particularly in developed countries. As a result, their economies have substantially bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, their labor markets have almost returned to normalcy. Concurrently, signs of increased inflationary pressures have ... Read more

21 Sep 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 21-22, 2021: View on QE Tapering Program Likely Unchanged after It Has Already Been Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3948)

We, at KResearch, asssess that the Fed will continue to maintain its policy rate within a range of 0.0-0.25 percent, and may not announce its QE tapering program at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, slated for September 21-22, 2021. The US central bank may also keep its view... Read more

21 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s public debt ceiling raised… Fiscal stability to remain unaffected in the short term; additional income required in the long term (Business Brief No.3949)

The State Monetary and Fiscal Policy Committee approved a temporary debt limit increase from a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent to 70 percent. The higher ceiling is to expand the government’s fiscal space and would not pose a hindrance if the government has to secure a loan to implement medium-term f... Read more

7 Sep 2021

International Economy

India’s economy and FDI soars ... Thai exports to India in 2021 set to surge 40% (Current Issue No.3265)

India is an interesting country. Aside from its economic growth that ranks among the highest in the world, it was the fifth-largest FDI recipient in 2020. KResearch perceives that future investments especially in e-commerce and ICT industries, and the manufacturing of technological devices like smar... Read more

20 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 to Generate 61.3 Million Kilograms in Infectious Waste in 2021, Resulting in Increased Disposal Costs (Current Issue No.3257)

The persistent COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and rising number of daily cases are set to generate increased amount of infectious waste during the remainder of 2021. We at KResearch project that the amount of infectious waste will reach roughly 61.3 million kilograms (excluding medical waste from Tha... Read more

16 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

KResearch revises downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to -0.5% due to economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3946)

The Thai economy in 1H21 grew more than previously assessed, as seen from economic indicators in 2Q21 which rose 7.5 percent YoY, mainly due to a low base effect and accelerated export growth. As a result, the Thai economy grew 2.0 percent YoY during the first half of 2021. However, the Thai economy... Read more

13 Aug 2021

International Economy

Rising Debt Defaults Will Unlikely Hurt Chinese Economy (Business Brief No.3945)

Although China’s economic stimulus measures post 2008 global financial crisis were successful in reviving its economic growth to at least 6 percent p.a. on average during the past decade, such measures have created persistent corporate debt. China’s corporate debt surged from 94 percent of GDP in 20... Read more

26 Jul 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, July 27-28, 2021: Fed Funds Rate Likely Maintained at 0.0-0.25% despite Rising Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3941)

KResearch assesses that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, July 27-28, 2021, as the US labor market has yet to fully bounce back, and the number of unemployed remains substainally higher ... Read more

23 Jul 2021

International Economy

2020 Tokyo Olympic Games: Additional Benefits to Japan’s Economy May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3247)

The Tokyo Olympic Games, which had originally been scheduled for 2020, were postponed to 2021. Despite calls for it to be cancelled because of concerns that the COVID-19 there may get much worse, and the Olympics may bring more risks than economic benefits, the Japanese government finally confirmed ... Read more

20 Jul 2021

International Economy

U.S. and China’s legal tools... the prelude to global leadership competition in the new era (Current Issue No.3246)

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, its economy has continuously seen accelerated growth. China’s GDP reached USD 14.72 trillion in 2020, resulting in the narrowing of the economic gap between China and the United States. Meanwhile, China’s bargaining power has significan... Read more

16 Jul 2021

International Economy

China’s Target to Become a Carbon-free Country Set to Benefit Thai Exports that Meet Clean Energy Needs (Current Issue No.3245)

In the latest 14th plan for national and economic development, China has set a target to become a carbon -free nation by 2060 or over the next four decades. KResearch, however, is of the view that it will take China some time to achieve that target as its carbon emissions are growing unabated post-C... Read more

15 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Intensified Impact of COVID-19 Leads KResearch to revise downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to 1.0% (Business Brief No.3937)

We, at KResearch, have decided to revise downward our 2021 growth forecast for the Thai economy to 1.0 percent, from a prior estimate of 1.8 percent, because the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has become more severe than previously assessed. Due to limitations of the Thai public health system, mo... Read more

9 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households

“Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households Government’s new relief measures along with procurement and rollout of quality vaccines are urgently needed... Read more

7 Jul 2021

Global Minimum Tax Set to Change an Approach in Attracting FDI (Current Issue No.3240)

A total of 130 countries around the world have reached a historic deal on global tax reform with the aim of addressing tax avoidance problems caused by multinational companies (MNCs). The reform will focus on two matters: 1) Establishing a global minimum tax rate, and 2) Adopting a new and fairer al... Read more

29 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Net loss to Construction and Restaurant Businesses Set to Reach at least THB40 Billion within One Month of Partial Lockdown in Six Dark Red Zone Provinces (Current Issue No.3234)

The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut... Read more

15 Jun 2021

International Economy

Fed likely to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% at FOMC on June 15-16; close attention should still be paid to economic and inflation forecasts (Business Brief No.3933)

KResearch has assessed that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during its upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, 2021, despite the rising inflation. The accelerating inflation can be primarily attributed to the resumption of economic activities af... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Economic challenges amid COVID-19 third wave (Press June 10, 2021)

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has kept its Thai economic projection for 2021 unchanged at 1.8 percent. The research house views that the Thai economy remains mired in uncertainty due to the persistence of COVID-19 both domestically and abroad, as well as vaccination progress. In the next 1-2 ... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Households are still concerned about COVID-19 while dwindling savings have begun to affect their spending behavior

The relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures around mid-May and gradual implementation of the government’s relief measures helped push the KR-ECI up slightly to 37.3 in May, though remained low, compared to the 37.0 reported for April. Meanwhile, the 3-month Expected KR-ECI for May remained stati... Read more